关键词: 四川, 西昌, 酿酒葡萄, 农业气候资源, 农业气象灾害, 延迟萌芽

Abstract: Wine grape is the most sensitive to climate change. Agricultural climate resources are the key environmental factors to the growth and development and fruit quality of wine grape. Under the background of climate warming, it is significance to guide the reasonable distribution of wine grape by analyzing the agricultural climate resources at Xichang of Sichuan Province. This study identified the change in agricultural climate resources and major agricultural meteorological disasters, based on the daily meteorological data from 1951 to 2018. The data on the actual growth period of wine grape from 2016 to 2018 was collected from the experimental sites of wine grape located at Xichang, an important wine grape growing region. We calculated the trend of heat, precipitation, sunshine hours and agricultural climate disasters in annual and actual growth period of wine grape, and the utilization of climate resources. Delayed germination of wine grapes refers to a cultivation technique to delays the germination period of grapes by avoiding the rain during the ripening and harvesting, so as to harvest fresh wine grapes in the middle of winter. Then we discussed the climatic feasibility of delaying the germination of wine grape at Xichang. The simulated phenology was calculated by two ways respectively, refer to the average integrated temperature with ≥10 ℃ is 3274.3℃·d as the required heat standard: ① the daily average temperature stable passing through 10℃ is the harvest period and ② the first frost day of each year was taken as the harvest period. The date of germination start was calculated by inverse calculation, and the growth period of delayed germination was obtained. In this paper, the results showed: the sufficient heat conditions, abundant precipitation resources and long sunshine hours can meet the climatic conditions for the growth and development of wine grape. The thermal resources for wine grapes had increased significantly （P＜0.05）. Precipitation was abundant and concentrated in the actual growth period. Although sunshine conditions could meet the actual requirements of wine grape but the decreasing trend had been significant （P＜0.01）. At Xichang, the occurrence frequency of low temperature was seven times one year. Excessive precipitation during the maturity period led to continuous rain disaster. Thus, delayed germination can be adopted. The simulated growth periods by delayed germination resulted in sufficient and consistent availability of precipitation resources meeting the growing water demand pattern of wine grape. Actual growth requirements of local wine grapes were met, and the decreasing trend of sunshine resources were slower than that in the actual growth period. The occurrence risk of agricultural meteorological disasters during the new growth period were lower than that in the actual growth period and can possibly be used as an effective method to minimize the impacts of agricultural meteorological disasters. In this study, we find that the delayed cultivation is one effective way to avoid some meteorological disasters at Xichang，according to these two simulated schemes. During the simulated growth period of wine grape, climate resources are feasibility, agricultural climate resources are rich and the agricultural meteorological disasters are less.

Key words: Xichang, Sichuan, Wine grape, Agricultural climate resources, Agricultural meteorological disasters, Delayed germination