华北平原冬小麦-夏玉米轮作区采用“两晚”技术的产量效应模拟分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362. 2015.05.011

摘要/Abstract

摘要： “两晚”技术即冬小麦播期适当推迟，夏玉米适当晚收，是华北平原冬小麦-夏玉米生产体系适应气候变化的有效措施。本文应用APSIM模型模拟了充分灌溉和雨养条件下“两晚”技术对河北、山东和河南冬小麦-夏玉米轮作体系产量的影响。结果表明：与传统方式相比，气候变暖后（2000-2009年）如果采用“两晚”技术，雨养条件和充分灌溉条件下都会使小麦轻微减产，而玉米较大幅度增产，小麦-玉米轮作体系的产量增加，但各地增加的幅度会有不同。具体表现为：雨养条件下，河北、山东和河南小麦平均减产率分别为7.8%，5.1%和2.5%，玉米平均增产率分别为19.8%，14.5%和13.4%，三地小麦-玉米体系平均增产率分别为10.7%，3.2%和4.8%；充分灌溉条件下，河北、山东和河南小麦平均减产率分别为1.8%，0.5%和0.9%，玉米平均增产率分别为14.2%，8.0%和8.5%，三地小麦-玉米体系平均增产率分别为4.5%，3.4%和2.8%。说明华北平原冬小麦-夏玉米轮作方式中采用“两晚”技术能够适应当前气候变暖特点，实现总产量增加，其中河北省北部地区为增产高值区。

关键词: 气候变暖, 冬前积温, 适宜播期, 适应, APSIM模型

Abstract: “Double-Delay” technology, i.e., delaying both the sowing time of wheat and the harvesting time of maize, is an effective option for wheat and maize cropping system adapting to climate change in the North China Plain (NCP). To study the impact of “Double-Delay” technology on the yield of wheat-maize cropping system as well as the spatial variability of yield changes, APSIM model was used to simulate the impact of “Double-Delay” technology on wheat and maize yield under rain-fed and sufficient irrigation conditions in the NCP. The simulated results averaged from 2000 to 2009 showed that “Double-Delay” technology could lead to the reduction in wheat yield, but increase substantially maize yield and total yields of wheat-maize cropping system under rain-fed and sufficient irrigation conditions compared with the traditional planting pattern. Under rain-fed condition, the averaged increase rates of maize yield were 19.8%, 14.5% and 13.4%, respectively in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan provinceswith the total increase rates of wheat-maize cropping system by 10.7%, 3.2% and 4.8%, respectively. Under sufficient irrigation condition, the averaged increase rates of maize were 14.2%, 8.0% and 8.5% in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan provinces, respectively with the total increase rates of wheat-maize cropping system were 4.5%, 3.4% and 2.8%, respectively. The increase in maize yield was attributed to the lengthened growth period of maize resulting from the delayed harvested time and the reduced field preparation time. The study results showed that “Double-Delay” technology increased the yield of wheat-maize system by adapting to climate change with higher increase rate in northern regions than in southern regions of NCP, especially in the Northern part of Hebei province. In general, “Double-Delay” technology is most suitable to apply in Hebei province. The study implied that adaptation options of agriculture to climate change should varied geographically.

Key words: Climate warming, Pre-winter positive accumulated temperature, Adaptation, Optimum sowing date, APSIM model

王娜，王靖，冯利平，潘学标，余卫东. 华北平原冬小麦-夏玉米轮作区采用“两晚”技术的产量效应模拟分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2015, 36(05): 611-618.

WANG Na, WANG Jing, FENG Li-ping, PAN Xue-biao, YU Wei-dong. Modeling the Impact of “Double-Delay” Technology on Yield of Wheat-Maize Cropping System in the North China Plain[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015, 36(05): 611-618.

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