关键词: 日光温室, 气象灾害, 影响率, 效益评估, 德尔菲法

Abstract: Eight indices of three kinds were designed in questionnaire to producer，dealers and technicians in 2013 in Hebei province.These indices included the meteorological service satisfaction for greenhouse production，the effects of main meteorological disasters on greenhouse vegetable yield，quality，storage，transportation and sales，and the different meteorological disaster defensive and remedial costs as a percentage of all meteorological disaster defensive and remedial costs.The benefit of meteorological service and the meteorological disaster recovery cost were evaluated quantitatively by using Delphi method.The results showed that most of reviewers thought that the effects of low temperature freeze injury and little sunlight on yield and quality of greenhouse vegetables were serious，45.6% and 53.7% of reviewers thought the low temperature freeze effect on the yield and quality rate were more than 15%，37.8% and 35.4% of reviewers thought the little sunlight effect on the yield and quality rate were more than 15%.While the effects of strong wind and snow storms on greenhouse vegetables were relatively slight.More than 70% of reviewers thought the effects rate of strong wind and little sunlight on greenhouse vegetable storage，transportation and sales were below 20%，more than half of reviewers thought that the effects of low temperature freeze on vegetable storage were more than 30%，31.0%，63.9% and 53.0% of reviewers thought the effects rate of snow storms on vegetable storage，transportation and sales were more than 30%.The satisfaction of reviewers to meteorological service was more than 96%.All kinds of meteorological service satisfaction from high to low in turns were the strong wind，snow storms，low temperature freeze and little sunlight.The percentage of defensive and remedial cost on strong wind，low temperature freeze，little sunlight and snow storms were in turns 20.3%，15.8%，13.0% and 19.4%，and meteorological service average contribution rate were 3.08%，2.25%，1.90% and 2.55% respectively.The strong wind service benefit was highest in recent 10 years，with annual 294.1 million yuan，followed by the snow storm，low temperature freeze and little sunlight，total benefits with annual 934.0 million yuan.The results could provide references to meteorological services for greenhouse production.

Key words: Greenhouse, Meteorological disasters, Effect rate, Benefit evaluation, Delphi method