关键词: 乌牛早, 龙井43, 安吉白茶, 福鼎白茶, 鸠坑, 开采期, 浙南

Abstract: Based on the first plucking date in spring of 5 varieties tea in southern Zhejiang during 2001 to 2014，combined with temperature，precipitation，sunshine hour and air relative humidity and other meteorological elements，the mathematical statistical methods were used to analyze the impact to spring tea in southern Zhejiang，then the critical temperature and the range of accumulated temperature from different varieties of spring tea plucking date were discussed，and prediction models of the first plucking date were established further. The results showed that the first plucking date of Wuniuzao tea（Feb. 23）was the earliest in different varieties of spring tea from southern Zhejiang，followed by Longjing43 tea（Mar. 9），the third was Anjibai tea（Mar. 11），the fourth was Fudingdabai tea（Mar. 16），Jiukeng tea（Mar. 27）was the latest. The correlation coefficient between their plucking date and temperature during January to February was significant negative（P<0.05）. The higher the temperature，the earlier the first plucking date. The first plucking date sequence and meteorological elements were used to do the stepwise regression analysis，in order to establish longterm，midterm prediction models. The inspection of forecast results during 2013 to 2014 showed that，the accuracy of the prediction models increased with the prediction effectiveness shorten，the closer the plucking date，the higher the accuracy of forecasts. By analyzing the accumulated temperature and the desired temperature from varieties of spring tea，accumulated temperature will be calculated according to weather forecast temperature to adjust the prediction of plucking date on the basis of the prediction models actually．

Key words: Wuniuzao tea, Longjing43 tea, Anjibai tea, Fudingdabai tea·, Jiukeng tea·The first plucking date·Southern Zhejiang