关键词: 绿橙, 适宜性, 气候区划, GIS, 未来气候变化情景

Abstract: Green orange is a characteristic fruit and plays an important role in local agricultural production in Hainan island. However, few researches have been available regarding the climatic suitability of green orange planting in the island. Based on the last 40a (1980-2019) daily meteorological data, topographical and other factors from 19 meteorological stations in the main island of Hainan island, a spatial analysis model is established to comprehensively determine the climate suitability index for green orange planting in the island. With climate suitability model, this study constructed the suitability models of temperature, sunshine and precipitation, as well as comprehensive suitability model for green orange planting. The methods of geographic information system (GIS) and natural point break were used in finely zoning green orange planting climate suitability. With the model simulation data of RCP4.5 climate scenario, this study assessed the trend of green orange planting suitability zone in the next 30y (2020-2049) under future climate change scenario. The results show that, the most suitable area for green orange planting is mainly distributed in the central region, with the subtotal area being 0.87×10⁴km², and the climate suitability index ranging from 0.9-1.0; the suitable area is mainly distributed in the eastern local region and most of the central and western regions, with the subtotal area being 1.83×10⁴km², and the climate suitability index being 0.7-0.9; the subsuitable area is mainly located in the western coastal, central and western high altitude regions, with subtotal area being 0.51×10⁴km², and the climate suitability index varying from 0.4-0.7; the unsuitable area is mainly distributed in the central mountainous region, with the subtotal area being 0.17×10⁴km², and the climate suitability index ranging from 0-0.4. Under the future climate scenario, the area with suitable temperature and precipitation will have large change, namely, the area with suitable temperature will gradually shrink from the surrounding to the central regions, the area with suitable precipitation will gradually move from the eastern to the central regions. The most climatic suitable area for future green orange planting will mainly distribute in the most parts of Qiongzhong, Tunchang and Baoting counties, western parts of Wanning, central and eastern parts of Baisha county in the island.

Key words: Green orange, Suitability, Climate zones, GIS, Future climate scenarios