关键词: 库尔勒香梨, 逐步回归分析, 人体舒适度指数, 赏花气象指数

Abstract: In order to explore the prediction model of the initial flowering period of fragrant pears in Xinjiang, and identify the most suitable flower viewing day of fragrant pears during the flowering period, the meteorological elements and the daily sequences of the initial flowering period of fragrant pears production areas in Aksu, Alar, Luntai and Korla of Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020 were analyzed by the stepwise regression method, and the prediction model of the meteorological index of fragrant pears main production areas in Korla of Xinjiang was established in combination with the human comfort index, which was expected to provide reference for Xinjiang Tourism meteorological service. The results showed that: (1) the composition factors of the prediction model for the initial flowering period of Korla fragrant pear in Xinjiang were the average maximum temperature in March, the soil temperature in depth of 0cm in March, the average temperature in March, and the soil temperature in depth of 40cm in March. There was a linear relationship (negative correlation) between the diurnal sequence and the air temperature at the beginning of flowering in Alar and Korla, and a linear relationship (multiple correlation) between the soil temperature and air temperature in Aksu and Luntai. The probability of model error within 3 days in normal years was 93.5% in Alar, 93.5% in Aksu, 100% in Korla and 96.8% in Luntai. (2) The optimized human comfort index was divided into four levels: the most suitable, sub-suitable, general and unsuitable. The most suitable days for the optimized human comfort index were 22 days in Alar, 24 days in Aksu, 16 days in Korla and 18 days in Luntai before and after the flowering period in 2022. (3) The meteorological index of fragrant pear flower appreciation takes the intersection of the suitable flowering period and the human comfort index, and was divided into four grades: the most suitable (five-star recommended index), sub-suitable (four-star recommended index), general (three-star recommended index) and unsuitable (one-star recommended index). In 2022, the five-star recommended flower viewing days were from April 11 to April 14 in Aksu, from April 10 to April 15 in Alar, from April 10 to April 15 in Korla, and from April 11 to April 14 in Luntai, respectively. The simulation results were in line with the reality. The meteorological index of fragrant pear flower appreciation, combined with the body temperature and the flowering period, had good application value and potential in the follow-up prediction of fragrant pear initial flowering period and the tourism meteorological service in Xinjiang.

Key words: Fragrant pear, Stepwise regression analysis, Human comfort index grade, Meteorological index of fragrant pear flower appreciation