关键词: 黄河口, 大闸蟹, 高温指数, 天气保险

Abstract: Using the daily temperature data from the Dongying national meteorological observatory from 1981−2021, the daily temperature and water temperature data of the agricultural waters of the Yellow River Estuary from 2019−2021, and the hairy crab yield data of the Yellow River Estuary in Dongying from 2004−2021, the meteorological yield reduction rate was calculated after the meteorological yield was separated by moving-average model, and the relationship between temperature factors and yield reduction rate during the growth cycle of hairy crabs was analyzed by correlation analysis, the high temperature index (HTI) was selected as the key factor, and the HTI-damage model was constructed by stepwise regression method, then the damage threshold and compensation rate were determined, and the high temperature index insurance product of hairy crab in the Yellow River Estuary was designed. With the improvement of production technology in recent years, the yield of hairy crabs increased in most years, but the yield reduction rate fluctuated obviously under the influence of meteorological conditions in different years, for example, in 2008 and 2019, high temperatures and typhoons and torrential rains caused a relative increase in yield loss, and the growth and development of hairy crabs were closely related to temperature, the daily mean effective accumulated temperature above 35℃ was significantly correlated with the yield reduction rate, which passed the 0.01 level test, the daily mean of effective accumulated temperature above 35℃, that is, the maximum of high temperature index reached 1.893℃·d, and the maximum of high temperature lead a 12.4% reduction of hairy crab yield. According to the calculation value of high temperature index-damage model, the high temperature disaster of hairy crab was further divided into five grades: mild, relatively mild, moderate, relatively severe and severe. Taking the HTI≥1.529℃·d as the trigger value of claims, the average amount of claims payable in the years when claims can occur is 294.04 yuan·667m⁻², and the amount of claims ranges from 58.59 to 651.00 yuan·667m⁻². The Yellow Estuary hairy crab high temperature weather index pure insurance rate was 6.61%, and the premium was 43.03 yuan·667m⁻².

Key words: Yellow River estuary, Hairy crabs, High temperature index, Weather insurance