关键词:

高温事件, 重现期, Copula, 京津冀

Abstract:

Heat events were identified based on the daily maximum temperature data at 27 meteorological stations located in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1960 to 2019. The Copula function was introduced to fit the joint cumulative probability distribution of the two characteristics, taking into account the duration of heat events and the heat intensity (defined as ≥35℃ accumulated temperature), so as to obtain the joint return period of the heat events with arbitrary duration and heat intensity and analyze the return period characteristics of heat events in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The results demonstrate that the distribution of the frequency and severity of heat events in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is higher in the south and lower in the north, but the increase in frequency, duration and average daily intensity is lower in the south and higher in the north; the effect of POISS function is optimal at all sites by fitting the edge distribution of the duration of heat events; when fitting the heat intensity, the GEV function works more efficiently at a greater number of station; when combining the duration and intensity of heat events in two dimensions, the Copula function used most is Symmetrised Joe-Clayton function, followed by Frank function; return period of heat events lasting more than five days in the study area exceeds once in five years, and once in 100 years in the northern region. The results of the study can provide a reference for heat disaster prevention and mitigation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

Key words:

Heat , events, Return period, Copula, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region