中国农业气象 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (6): 854-866.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2026.06.004

• 农业生态环境栏目 • 上一篇    下一篇

宁夏复合高温干旱事件时序特征及其对不同土地类型土壤墒情的影响

李文迪,SEKA M. Ayalkibet,KALISA Wilson,张佳华   

  1. 1. 青岛大学计算机科学技术学院,青岛 266071;2. 中国科学院空天信息创新研究院,北京 100094
  • 收稿日期:2025-05-26 出版日期:2026-06-20 发布日期:2026-06-18
  • 作者简介:李文迪,E-mail:liwendi@qdu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    山东省中央引导地方科技发展资金项目(YDZX2023019);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2023QD073;ZR2024LQX005;ZR2024QD156)

Temporal Characteristics of Compound Hot and Dry Events and Their Impact on Soil Moisture Across Different Land Use Types in Ningxia

LI Wen-di, SEKA M. Ayalkibet, KALISA Wilson, ZHANG Jia-hua   

  1. 1. College of Computer Science and Technology, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094
  • Received:2025-05-26 Online:2026-06-20 Published:2026-06-18

摘要: 基于1981−2020年宁夏地区逐日气温和降水量数据,构建复合高温干旱指数(Standardized compound dry−hot index,SCDHI),结合土壤墒情与土地覆盖类型,采用Pearson相关分析、Spearson等级相关法和分位数回归等方法,分析宁夏植被生长期(6−10月)复合高温干旱事件的时序变化特征及其对土壤墒情的影响。结果表明:(1)1981−2020年宁夏复合高温干旱事件呈阶段性波动上升特征,主要发生在7−8月,发生频率整体呈增强趋势。(2)SCDHI与土壤墒情呈显著正相关关系,不同土地类型中与草地(r=0.58)、农田(r=0.58)相关关系较高,其次是与林地(r=0.56)、裸地(r=0.51),反映其较强的生态缓冲能力。(3)分位数回归结果显示,草地和裸地在中高分位区间30%~70%)SCDHI响应最敏感,农田表现出一定的缓冲效应,林地响应不显著。该方法有效揭示了传统均值分析难以发现的非对称性关系。综合来看,宁夏地区在植被生长期内复合高温干旱事件频率提升,干旱胁迫对土壤墒情影响具有显著的土地利用差异性与分位特征。

关键词: 复合高温干旱事件, 土壤墒情, Copula函数, 分位数回归

Abstract:

Based on daily temperature and precipitation data from 1981 to 2020, a standardized compound dry−hot index (SCDHI) was constructed. Pearson correlation, Spearman rank correlation and quantile regression methods were used in combination with soil moisture data and land cover types to assess temporal variability in SCDHI and its impact on soil moisture. The results showed that: (1) from 1981 to 2020, compound hot−drought events in Ningxia exhibited a phased and fluctuating upward trend, mainly concentrated in July and August, with an overall increase in frequency. (2) SCDHI and soil moisture exhibited a significant overall positive correlation. Among different land cover types, grassland and farmland showed the strongest correlations (r=0.58), followed by forest (r=0.56) and bare land (r=0.51), indicating stronger ecological buffering capacity in forested areas. (3) Quantile regression results revealed that grassland and bare land were most sensitive to SCDHI in the medium to high quantile range (30%−70%), farmland showed a certain degree of buffering effect due to human intervention, while forest showed no significant response. This method effectively reveals asymmetric relationships that cannot be detected by conventional meanbased analyses. In summary, compound hot−dry events have increased in frequency during the growing season in Ningxia, and their impact on soil moisture shows significant variability across land use types and quantile levels. The findings provide scientific support for regional drought monitoring and land management strategies.

Key words: Compound hot and dry events, Soil moisture, Copula function, Quantile regression