关键词: 生猪养殖, 碳排放, 脱钩效应, LMDI模型, STIRPAT模型

Abstract:

To clarify the characteristics of the carbon emissions from pig farming in Liaoning and their relationship to economic development, influencing factors and future trends, this study used data on pig farming in Liaoning from 2003 to 2022. The total carbon emissions and intensity of pig farming in Liaoning were calculated using the IPCC coefficient method. The Tapio decoupling model was used to analyze the state of decoupling between pig farming carbon emissions and output value. The Kaya identity and LMDI model were applied to examine the influencing factors of pig farming carbon emissions, and the STIRPAT model was used to forecast pig farming carbon emissions from 2023 to 2030. The results showed that: (1) carbon emissions primarily originated from manure management systems, with CH₄ emissions accounting for 28.40% and N₂O emissions accounting for 63.49%. The carbon emission intensity of pig farming in Liaoning province significantly decreased from 2003 to 2009, experienced minor fluctuations and remained relatively stable from 2008 to 2017, and showed notable volatility from 2018 to 2022, following an "upward-downward-upward" trend. (2) From 2003 to 2022, the decoupling state of pig farming carbon emissions in Liaoning province was predominantly characterized by weak decoupling and weak negative decoupling. Pork prices and the size of the farming scale were the main factors that increased carbon emissions from pig farming, while efficiency factors, industrial structure and agricultural population suppressed the increase. (3) Based on pork prices in Liaoning from 2003 to 2022, three scenarios were established, including annual growth rates of 2.0%, 5.3% and 8.0%, predicting that pig farming carbon emissions in Liaoning would follow an upward trend from 2023 to 2030 (P<0.01). Under the low−growth, baseline and high−growth scenarios, emissions would increase by 10.81%, 9.65% and 7.17%, respectively. To achieve a low−carbon transformation in the pig farming industry, it needs to implement policies such as supporting the introduction and breeding of high−quality pig breeds, optimizing manure treatment technologies, regulating farming scale, enhancing efficiency, improving carbon emission reduction policies and regulatory frameworks, and establishing a market supply−demand early warning mechanism for the pig farming sector.

Key words: Pig farming, Carbon emissions, Decoupling effect, LMDI model, STIRPAT model