利用气候因素预测小麦赤霉病发生程度的数学模型及其应用

中国农业气象

利用气候因素预测小麦赤霉病发生程度的数学模型及其应用

卢兆成;沈彩云;

河南省信阳地区农业科学研究所,河南省信阳地区农业科学研究所,

出版日期:1991-09-10 发布日期:1991-09-10

A CLIMATIC-FACTOR-BASED MATHEMATICAL MODEL USED IN FORECASTING INCIDENCE OF WHEAT SCAB

Lu Zhaocheng Shen Caiyun (Xinyang Research Institute of Agricultural Sciences HENAN)

Online:1991-09-10 Published:1991-09-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 小麦赤霉病是一种气候流行病,其发生流行程度的轻重,主要取决于当地4月下旬到5月上旬小麦抽穗开花期20天内的气候条件,如果气温适宜、湿度大时,则蔓延成灾。本文采用多因子综合相关法,通过计算条件频率得出预报方程,其历史拟合率可达95.6%。

关键词: NULL

Abstract: Wheat scab caused by Gibberella zeae is a typical climatedependent dise- ase.The incidence degree depends largely on the weather conditions(tempera- ture,rainfall,raindays,RH,and sunhours)between late April and ear May, when wheat plants are in the heading-flowering stage.This paper presents a mathematical model used in forecasting the incidence of this disease.The multifactor comprehensive correlation method is used to establish a foreca- sting equation which was found to have a goodness of fit of 95.6%.

Key words: NULL, NULL

卢兆成;沈彩云;. 利用气候因素预测小麦赤霉病发生程度的数学模型及其应用[J]. 中国农业气象.

Lu Zhaocheng Shen Caiyun (Xinyang Research Institute of Agricultural Sciences HENAN). A CLIMATIC-FACTOR-BASED MATHEMATICAL MODEL USED IN FORECASTING INCIDENCE OF WHEAT SCAB[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology.