关键词: 咖啡黑果病, 气象条件, 趋势预报

Abstract: The coffee black fruit is a main disease of coffee in the Simao Region.The occurrence of coffee black fruit is closely connected with meteorological conditions.The high humidity and moderate temperature are advantageous to occurrence of coffee anthracnose(Glomerella cingulata) and coffee brown spot(Phoma offeicola).The occurrence of the coffee black fruit in the growing area is usually and serious.According to humidity and temperature conditions,the occurrence of coffee black fruit was divided into three periods,e.g.dormancy,delitescence and harm period.During harm period there were two occurrence peaks.The first peak was from June to September and the second one was from the middle of November to December.Based on precipitation,radiation hour,relative humidity and mid-range forecast of every ten days period,the forecast model for the occurrence trend of coffee black fruit was established.The forecast results were reliable proved by the field investigations in last six years.

Key words: Black fruit of coffee, Black fruit of coffee, Meteorological condition, Trend forecast