关键词: 重庆, 气候波动, 水稻产量, Logistic曲线

Abstract: Based on the meteorological and rice yield data of 1960-2001 in four representative counties Jiangjin,Fengdu,Fengjie and Youyang in Chongqing City,the rice yield series were detached as subsections by using Mann-Kendall method.The rice tendency yields were calculated based on subsection fitting by the Logistic equation to obtain the meteorological yields.The impacts of climate on rice yields and corresponding response strategies were analyzed by using integral-regression method.The results showed that the rice yield per unit increased abruptly in all of four counties of Chongqing in early 1980s.The effects of subsection Logistic fitting were superior to that of beeline fitting.The meteorological yield of rice had an annual change.It was relative low in the early 1960s,1970s and middle and late 1990s,while it was relative high in the middle 1960s,middle 1980s and early-middle 1990s.The reduction of the rice yield was mainly caused by the low temperature in spring with overcast and rainy and drought in summer.In order to increase rice yield,some measures,including keep thermo in spring and reinforce water before the summer should be adopted.

Key words: Chongqing, Chongqing, Climate change, Rice yield, Logistic equation