关键词: 森林虫害, 气象因子, 相关分析, 预测模型, 渝西地区

Abstract: Based on the analysis the observation data of the area of the forest pest occurrences from 1950 to 2020 in the Yongchuan District of Western Chongqing by period analysis method,the results showed that there existed a 5～7 years period for forest pest occurrences in the last 53 years and a quasi-2 years period in the 1980s.Through the statistical analysis of the forest pest occurrences and the meteorological elements,the temperature,atmospheric humidity in the spring and the midsummer,and the strong precipitation in the early summer were the main meteorological elements affecting forest pest occurrences in the Western Chongqing.Based on the correlation analysis,a meteorological forecast model for the forest pest occurrences was established by using Artificial Neural Network(ANN) method.The average errors of the forecast results during 1985 and 2002 were 4.85%.The validation by the back substitution showed a preferable result.

Key words: Forest Pest, Forest Pest, Meteorological element, Correlation analysis, Forecast model, Western Chongqing