中国农业气象

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黑龙江省近45年积温变化及积温带的演变趋势

季生太;杨明;纪仰慧;王萍;姜丽霞;朱海霞;闫平;   

  1. 黑龙江省气象科学研究所;肇东市气象局;
  • 出版日期:2009-04-10 发布日期:2009-04-10
  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF-09-13);; 黑龙江省气象局重点项目“黑龙江省生态与农业气象监测预警评估服务系统”(zd2006-3)

Change of Accumulated Temperature and Evolution Trends of Accumulated Temperature Zone over Last 45 Years in Heilongjiang Province

JI Sheng-tai1,YANG Ming2,JI YANG-hui1,WANG Ping1,JIANG Li-xia1,ZHU Hai-xia1,YAN Ping1(1.Heilongjiang Province Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Harbin 150030,China;2.Zhaodong Meteorological Bureau,Zhaodong 151100)   

  • Online:2009-04-10 Published:2009-04-10

摘要: 选取黑龙江省80个地面气象站1961-2005年≥10℃积温资料,研究黑龙江省积温变化及其引发的积温带变化和演变趋势。积温用逐日平均气温通过5日滑动平均方法计算得出,采用Mann-kendall方法进行突变检验。结果表明:随着全球气候变暖,近45a黑龙江省≥10℃积温呈明显增加趋势;积温的年代际变化显示出20世纪70年代略有减少、而后显著增加的变化趋势;M-K检验结果显示,积温在1993年发生突变性增加。由于黑龙江省≥10℃积温的累进增加,全省≥10℃积温带出现明显的北移和东扩,其中,第一积温带北移最明显,平均达0.5个纬距,第三积温带东扩最明显,达2个经距。

关键词: 积温变化, 突变检验, 积温带

Abstract: Based on the analyses of the ≥10℃ accumulated temperature data of 80 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2005 in Heilongjiang Province,the changes of accumulated temperature and the evolution trends of the accumulated temperature zone were studied,by using the daily mean temperature,the accumulated temperature calculated by the five-day running average method and examined by the Mann-Kendall method for the sudden change.The results showed that with the global climate warming,the ≥10℃ accumulate temperature in Heilongjiang Province obviously increased over the last 45 years.The decadal change of the accumulate temperature showed a slightly decreased trend in the 1970s,but with obviously increased afterwards.The M-K test results indicated that the accumulated temperature suddenly increased in 1993.Due to the ≥10℃ accumulated temperature progressive increase in Heilongjiang Province,the ≥10℃ accumulated temperature zone obviously moved to north and east.The first accumulated temperature zone moved northwards most evidently with the average longitudinal distance about 0.5 degree,while the third accumulated temperature zone expand eastwards most obviously with the latitudinal distance to two degrees.

Key words: Accumulated temperature change, Accumulated temperature change, Mutation test, Accumulated temperature zone