中国农业气象

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近50年安徽淮北平原降水变化特征分析

祁宦;   

  1. 安徽省宿州市气象局;
  • 出版日期:2009-04-10 发布日期:2009-04-10
  • 基金资助:
    安徽省气象局科研基金项目(0311)“淮北地区农业干旱预警模型及灌溉决策服务系统研究”

Analysis of Precipitation Changes in Huaibei Plain over Last 50 Years

QI Huan(Suzhou Meteorological Bureau of Anhui Province,Suzhou 234000,China)   

  • Online:2009-04-10 Published:2009-04-10

摘要: 选取淮北平原6个典型代表气象站的逐年降水观测资料,采用数理统计方法、趋势拟合和R/S分析等方法,分析了年降水量、主汛期降水量和暴雨日数的变化特征。结果表明,淮北平原年降水量和主汛期降水量增加并不明显,但年际间波动较大,年降水平均变异系数0.26,最大极差在1150mm以上;主汛期降水量变异系数0.39,极比达到5.07,导致旱涝频繁发生。趋势分析表明,20世纪90年代以来,淮北平原多雨年和少雨年都呈增加的趋势,暴雨日数也呈明显增多的趋势。R/S分析得出,未来淮北平原的降水仍呈宽幅震荡的趋势,旱涝灾害仍是制约当地农业生产的主导因素。

关键词: 安徽淮北平原, 年降水量, 主汛期降水量, 暴雨日数

Abstract: Based on the precipitation data of six meteorological stations from 1957 to 2006 in Huaibei Plain of Anhui Province,the characteristics of variation of annual precipitation,three months precipitation from June to August and rainstorm days were analyzed by using statistical and trend fitting analysis method.The results showed that the increment of annual precipitation and precipitation during the flood period from June to August was not significant,but the inter-annual variations of these parameters were significant.The mean coefficient of variation for the annual precipitation was by 0.26.The difference between the maximum and the minimum annual precipitation was over 1150mm.The mean coefficient of variation of the precipitation during the flood period from June to August was with 0.39,while the ratio of the maximum and the minimum was with 5.07.Both rainy and rare rain years showed an increased trend since 1990s,same as for the rainstorm days.The floods and droughts were still the main factors which strained the local agricultural production.

Key words: Huaibei Plain of Anhui Province, Huaibei Plain of Anhui Province, Annual precipitation, Precipitation during the flood period from June to August, Rainstorm day