关键词: 气候变暖, 牡丹始花期, 预报模型

Abstract: By analyzing the relationship between the peony first flowering date and meteorological data from 1964 to 2008 in Heze,the results showed that peony first flowering date was negatively correlated with the temperature before flowering,but it was not significant to precipitation and sunshine duration.Moreover,the peony first flowering date was obviously advanced in recent 25 years.Through selecting several optimal meteorological factors that influenced peony first flowering date,a long-term and short-term meteorological prediction model for peony first flowering date was made by using the DPS data processing system.With this model,test predictions in history and in the year of 2007 and 2008 were good.This result could provide a reference to predicting the optimum time of ornamental peonies in Heze.

Key words: Climate warming, Peony first flowing date, Prediction model