中国农业气象

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气候变暖背景下太原市霜冻发生特征及其对农业的影响

张霞;钱锦霞;   

  1. 山西省科技情报研究所;山西省气候中心;
  • 出版日期:2010-02-10 发布日期:2010-02-10
  • 基金资助:
    山西省科技攻关项目“山西省农业气象灾害监测预警服务系统研究”(20080311086)

Frost Characteristics and Its Effect on Agriculture in Taiyuan under Climate Warming

ZHANG Xia1,QIAN Jin-xia2(1.Institute of Science and Technology Information of Shanxi Province,Taiyuan 030001,China;2.Climate Center of Shanxi Province,Taiyuan 030002)   

  • Online:2010-02-10 Published:2010-02-10

摘要: 基于太原市1951-2008年逐日最低气温资料,按轻微、中度和重度3级霜冻强度,分析了太原市霜冻发生的基本特征;采用累积滤波器法结合非参数统计检验方法分析了太原市霜冻的变化趋势;利用异常霜冻指标,分析了太原市霜冻的异常发生情况。结果表明:1)太原市轻微霜冻平均初霜冻日为10月14日、终霜冻日为4月15日,平均无霜冻期为182d。与轻微霜冻相比,中度、重度霜冻平均初霜冻日分别推后9d和23d,平均终霜冻日分别提前11d和24d,平均无霜冻期分别延长20d和47d。2)各级霜冻强度下,初霜冻日在年代际间的变化较为复杂,终霜冻日则表现为20世纪50-70年代偏晚、80年代之后偏早,无霜冻期表现为50-70年代缩短、80年代之后延长为主的变化特点。3)在α=0.05显著水平下,太原市各级霜冻的初霜冻日呈现显著的推后趋势、终霜冻日呈现显著的提前趋势以及无霜冻期呈现显著的延长趋势,以重度终霜冻日提前趋势最显著。4)太原市轻微偏早初霜冻、中度偏晚终霜冻和重度偏早初霜冻发生频率达15%以上,其余各级异常霜冻的发生频率在5%~10%;大多数异常霜冻发生在50-70年代。5)太原市轻微异常初霜冻对秋粮作物的产量影响较小,中度和重度异常初霜冻会使大白菜遭受不同程度的冻害;春播幼苗主要受到特晚终霜冻的影响;冬小麦遭受终霜冻危害的平均频率为5年一遇,尤以拔节后5d内发生的频率最大。

关键词: 日最低气温, 初、终霜冻, 异常霜冻指标, 累积滤波器法, 太原市

Abstract: The frost characteristics in Taiyuan city were analyzed based on the daily minimum temperature data in Taiyuan Meteorological Station from 1951 to 2008,by using the methods statistics,cumulative filter and non-parametric respectively.The results showed that the first light frost was occurred in October 14th,and the last light frost was in April 15th.The average free-frost period was 182 days.Comparably,the first moderate and severe frost delayed 9 days and 23 days,the last ones advanced 11 days and 24 days.The average free-frost period was extended 20 days and 47 days.In totally,the first frost changed complexly,the last frost was delayed during 1950s to 1970s and advanced since 1980s.The average free-frost period was shortened during 1950s to 1970s and extended since 1980s.Generally,the first frost delayed and last frost advanced,and the average free-frost period was extended.The occurring frequency of abnormal first or last frost event took up 5~15%,most of them were in the years of 1950s-1970s.The abnormal first light frost event usually had little impacts on crops and cabbage.But the cabbage would suffer from freezing injury with the abnormal first moderate or severe frost.The abnormal last frost could affect seedling in spring.Winter wheat suffered from the frost damage one time in each 5 years,and the risk stage was 5 days after jointing.

Key words: Daily minimum temperature, Daily minimum temperature, First and last frost, Unusual frost criterion, Cumulative filter method, Taiyuan city