关键词: 干旱预测, 综合气象干旱预测模型, 综合农业干旱预测模型, 干旱预警, 陕西

Abstract: Based on the ecological and agricultural drought similar regions,8 sub-areas for drought forecasting and early warning in Shaanxi province were divided.By using the information of medium term or extended weather forecast,soil relative humidity observations,ground vegetation,etc,integrated meteorological model and the integrated agricultural model for drought forecasting were set up and a drought forecasting and early warning system platform was developed.The daily drought evolution of the 97 meteorological stations in Shaanxi province could then be rolling forecasted.Whether and how to release drought early warning information could be determined based on these records,the analysis of drought early warning conditions and identified grades.The accuracy rate of drought prediction in 2007 was 88% to 96% as compared to the actual situation.

Key words: Drought forecasting, Drought forecasting, Integrated meteorological model of drought forecasting, Integrated agricultural model of drought forecasting, Drought early warning, Shaanxi