关键词: 东亚飞蝗, 夏蝗, 出土始期, 出土盛期, 发生密度, 发生面积, 预测模型

Abstract: Based on the survey data of summer oriental migratory locust and meteorological data between 1983 to 2008 in the five key coastal regions of the Yellow River Delta,the statistical correlation between the occurrence period,quantity of the summer oriental migratory locust and the main meteorological factors were analyzed.The regressive prediction model was built.The result showed that the obvious negative correlations between the beginning,the peak unearthed period of summer oriental migratory locust and rainfall of September in previous year,rainfall of February in current year had been found,but with deferent coefficients.For the occurred quantity prediction,there were obvious negative correlations between the occurred density of summer oriental migratory locust and average April atmospheric temperature and the February rainfall in current year,and obvious positive correlations between the occurred area of the locust and the average atmospheric temperature of March in current year and of August in previous year,and an obvious negative correlation between occurred area of summer oriental migratory locust and rainfall of September in previous year.An average 90.2% accuracy got by comparing the predictive data gotten by the prediction mode with the investigated occurrence of summer Oriental migratory locust in back review test to previous data.It could meet the actual demand.

Key words: Oriental migratory locust, Oriental migratory locust, Summer locust, Beginning of unearthed period, Peak of unearthed period, Occurrence density, Occurrence area, Prediction model