关键词: 稻纵卷叶螟, 气象条件, 等级预报

Abstract: By comparing the occurrence data of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guene and meteorological data in past five years in Guilin region,the meteorological factors of affecting the occurrence of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guene were selected.According to the factors,the meteorological condition grades forecast model for occurrence of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guene was established by using regression analysis method.The model was used to predict the meteorological condition integrity grades,which included long-term forecast and short-term forecast.Also considering the weather forecast results,the model could predict whether the future meteorological condition was suitable to occurrence of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guene,in quarter a year,one month,even one week.The forecast accuracy rate was more than 70%,which played a great role in agricultural activities.

Key words: Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guene, Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guene, Meteorological condition, Grades forecast