关键词: 菏泽牡丹初花期, 序列特征, 优势相关区, 中长期预报

Abstract: Heze peony has a short florescence and its early florescence scattered by years,which has seriously impeded the Heze International Peony Festival.In this paper,comparison between the 500hPa atmospheric circulation characteristics of the early period of the typical years with in-advance and delayed peony early florescence has been conducted and a clear deviation was found.Subsequently,the correlation analysis was carried out by month on the 500hPa monthly average height of the northern hemisphere from April to March of the next year,utilizing the florescence series from 1964 to 2006.The analysis showed 41 regions with advantaged correlation,with four positive correlation and the others being negative correlation.The occurrence of the positive and negative correlation regions depended on time and area.The positive correlation occurredin winter at the high lattitude area in the north of the Pacific and the Atlantic.The negative correlation started between April and May of the last year in the north of the Indian and the northern equatorial Pacific,and then spreaded northwards.Using representative grid points in the positive correlation region as the forecast factors,the equation system for the mid and long-term forecast of the peony florescence was constructed.The effective forecast period of the model was found to be longer than 150 days.The model has been validated through tests over the past several years,and is expected to help increase the forecast period on the florescence of flowers.

Key words: Early florescence of Heze peony, Early florescence of Heze peony, Sequence characteristics, Advantaged correlation region, Mid and long-term forecast