关键词: 草地螟, 气象因子, 相关分析, 预报模型

Abstract: The relationship between occurrence area of the first generation larvae of Loxostege sticticalis Linnaeus and climate conditions was analyzed based on occurrence data of Loxostege sticticalis Linnaeusand and meteorological data from 1996 to 2009,and the main meteorological factors influenced occurrence of the first generation larvae of Loxostege sticticalis Linnaeus were determined.The meteorological forecast model for occurrence area of the first generation larvae of Loxostege sticticalis Linnaeus was established by using multiple regression method based on the survival adult quantity in spring and main meteorological factors.The results showed that occurrence area of first generation Loxostege sticticalis Linnaeus had positive correlation to relative humidity of mid-and-later May,and average temperature of mid-June,and had negative correlation to average temperature of mid-May and early June,relative humidity of mid-June.77% prediction was consistent with the actual situation and 15% prediction was grade 1 difference with actual situation through back substitution test.100% prediction accuracy meet grade 3.The model also tested by forecasting occurrence area of first generation Loxostege sticticalis Linnaeus in 2009,and it could provide references for understanding and controlling occurrence of first generation Loxostege sticticalis Linnaeus in local.

Key words: Loxostege sticticalis Linnaeus, Loxostege sticticalis Linnaeus, Meteorological factors, Correlation analysis, Forecast model