中国农业气象 ›› 2013, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (01): 88-93.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2013.01.013

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

安徽省冰雹气候特征及其致灾因子危险性区划

温华洋,田红,唐为安,卢燕宇,吴蓉   

  1. 1安徽省气象信息中心,合肥 230031;2安徽省气候中心,合肥 230031
  • 收稿日期:2012-02-20 出版日期:2013-02-20 发布日期:2013-04-17
  • 作者简介:温华洋(1983-),江苏沭阳人,工程师,主要从事资料评估、气候变化相关方向研究。Email:wenhy12@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    公益性行业(气象)科研专项“全球变化背景下中国气象灾害风险区划研究”(GYHY200906019)

Climatic Characteristics of Hail Disaster and its Risk Zoning in Anhui Province

WEN Hua yang,TIAN Hong,TANG Wei an,LU Yan yu ,WU Rong   

  1. 1 Anhui Meteorological Information Centre, Hefei 230031,China;2 Anhui Provincial Climate Centre, Hefei 230031
  • Received:2012-02-20 Online:2013-02-20 Published:2013-04-17

摘要: 利用安徽省82个气象台站观测资料,《中国气象灾害大典(1951-2005年)》和《安徽省气象灾害年鉴(2006-2009年)》的记录资料,对安徽省冰雹的气候特征进行研究,并对致灾因子进行危险性区划,以期为冰雹灾害的防御和评估提供科学依据。结果表明,安徽省冰雹具有一定的年代际变化规律,且降雹日数与年平均最低气温呈显著的负相关(P<0.05);3-8月冰雹出现频率较高,其中6月最高,而秋冬季出现较少;冰雹大部发生在一日内午后至日落之前;空间分布上冰雹主要发生在淮北东北、大别山南部以及黄山部分地区。利用冰雹的直径、持续时间,以及发生时的阵风等级3个致灾因子定义了冰雹强度指数,并利用百分位法对冰雹强度进行分级,为冰雹强度的定量化评估提供可能。致灾因子危险性区划结果表明,极高危险区集中在淮北东部地区,低危险区主要在淮河以南的大部地区。利用历史灾情对区划结果的初步验证表明,风险区划结果具有一定的合理性。

关键词: 冰雹, 气候特征, 冰雹强度指数, 致灾因子, 危险性区划

Abstract: Based on the hail-day records from 82 weather stations in Anhui province, Chinese Meteorological Disaster Dictionary (1951 to 2005) and the Yearbook of Meteorological Disaster in Anhui Province (2006 to 2009), authors discussed the climatic character and risk zoning of hail disaster in Anhui province. The results showed that the hail days exhibited obvious interdecadal variability,and it had a significant negative correlation with annual mean minimum temperature. The hails usually occurred during March to August,most frequently in June but less in autumn and winter,and it took place from afternoon to sunset. The spatial distribution showed that the hail occurred more in northeast of Anhui province, south of Dabie mountain and Huangshan mountain, but less in Jianghuai region. The index of hail intensity was defined by three factors, the diameter, duration and gust wind, and the percentile method was used to grade the intensity of the hail disaster. This work provided a possibility for quantitative assessment of the intensity of hail disaster. The results of hail disaster risk zoning in Anhui province showed that high risk zones were concentrated in northeast of Anhui province, and low risk zones were mainly in the north of the Dabie mountain and some areas of Jianghuai region. Finally, verified by history disaster, it showed that the results of risk of zoning had a certain rationality and feasibility.

Key words: Hail, Climate character, Index of hail intensity, Disaster factors, Risk zoning