耦合土壤墒情的气候适宜度指数在山东省冬小麦产量动态

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.02.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用山东省1981-2011年历年冬小麦生育期及产量资料、14个气象站点的逐日气象资料、1992-2011年冬小麦生长季逐旬20cm土壤墒情资料，分别构建考虑和不考虑土壤墒情的冬小麦不同生长阶段的气候适宜度指数计算模型，通过与气象产量进行相关和回归分析，建立了基于两种气候适宜度指数的3-5月逐旬产量动态预报模型，并进行历史回代检验和动态外推预报。结果表明：考虑土壤墒情的气候适宜度指数能够更客观地反映山东省冬小麦生长期间气象条件和土壤水分对其产量形成的影响，构建的气候适宜度指数与冬小麦气象产量的相关系数均通过0.01水平的显著性检验，相关性高于不考虑土壤墒情的气候适宜度指数。产量动态预报模型对1992-2009年历史回代检验的平均准确率均在95.0%以上，标准化均方根误差RMSE均小于6%。对2010-2011年外推预报准确率最高达99.4%，最低为95.4%，说明预报准确率较高，建立的产量动态预报模型可以在业务上推广应用。

关键词: 生育期, 气象产量, 气象条件, 土壤水分

Abstract: Taking into account soil moisture， and taking advantage of developmental stages， yield material and daily meteorological data of 14 weather stations from 1981 to 2011 in Shandong Province， and each tenday soil moisture material of 20 centimeter in growth stages of winter wheat， the climate suitability index in different growth stages of winter wheat were constructed. In addition， dynamic yield forecast model of each tenday during March to May were established， based on two kinds of climate suitability index， via the correlation and regression analysis with meteorological yield， and history back to the generation of test and dynamic extrapolation forecast were made. The results showed that the climate suitability index that considering soil moisture could reflect the influence of weather and soil moisture conditions on the yield formation more objective， and its correlation with meteorological yield had all passed the significant test of the 0.01 level， which was greater than the correlation between climate suitability taking no account of soil moisture and meteorological yield. The mean accuracy of the dynamic prediction model of yield for historical fitting test was all above 95.0%， and the standardized root mean square error RMSE was less than 6%. The dynamic prediction of yield in 2010-2011 showed that， the accuracy of the highest reached 99.4%， and the lowest was 95.4%. The accuracy of prediction was higher so that the dynamic prediction model of yield could apply to operational service．

Key words: Growth stage, Meteorological yield, Meteorological condition, Soil moisture

邱美娟，宋迎波，王建林，邬定荣，刘玲，刘建栋. 耦合土壤墒情的气候适宜度指数在山东省冬小麦产量动态[J]. 中国农业气象, 2015, 36(02): 187-194.

QIU Meijuan， SONG Yingbo， WANG Jianlin， WU Dingrong， LIU Ling， LIU Jiandong. Application of Climate Suitability Index Coupling Soil Moisture in Dynamic Yield Prediction of Winter Wheat in Shandong Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015, 36(02): 187-194.

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