关键词: 苹果, 多灾种, 气象灾害, 风险评估

Abstract: Eastern Gansu is the most important apple base of Gansu province,but drought, freezing damage, hail and other meteorological disasters occured frequently during growth period of apple,which could lead to loss in yield and quality. Therefore, it was necessary to evaluate the integrated risk of multiple meteorological disasters on the growth of apple.In this paper, the meteorological data of 22 counties (districts/cities) in eastern Gansu from 1965 to 2018, planting area and yield of apple from 1995 to 2018, and other socio-economic statistics data for the latest 5 years were employed.12 indices of 4 kinds were analyzed and selected, and the integrated risk index system was established using disaster risk analysis theory. The weights of risk indices were determined by the compromising method between analytic hierarchy process method and entropy-coefficient method. In addition, the risk value of each evaluated unit was calculated. Therefore,an integrated risk evaluation index model of meteorological disasters was established and the risk was zoned and evaluated with GIS technique. The studied region was divided into four–risk–grade areas according to the integrated risk value, including mild risk area, moderate risk area, severe risk area and severity risk area. The results showed that hazard of the disaster-causing-factors was the most important factor influencing the integrated risk, the vulnerability of the hazard-affected body takes the second place, while the sensitivity of disaster environment and the disaster prevention and mitigation capability play alleviative roles in the risk factors composition. The integrated risk of meteorological disasters on apple growth in eastern Gansu shows a trend of increasing from southeast to northwest. The regions with severe and severity risk were mainly distributed along the mountainous area of Guanshan, the both sides of Liupan Mountain, and the north of Longdong Loess Plateau, with the risk index value of above 0.45; the regions with the moderate risk were mainly distributed in the south-central part of Longdong, and most of the Weihe River Basin, with the value between 0.25 to 0.45; the regions with the mild risk were only scattered in a small part of the Weihe River Basin, and the southeast of Longdong, with the value of below 0.45.

Key words: Apple, Multiple, Meteorological disasters, Risk evaluation