关键词: 川渝地区, 水稻产量, 面板模型, 极端气候指标, 气候指标

Abstract:

 The cultivation of the double-cropping systems involving early and late rice was investigated within the Sichuan-Chongqing area, and a panel model was constructed based on historical meteorological data (1981−2020) and rice yield data (1997−2020) to analyze the impacts of future climate (2021−2060, SSP1−2.6 and SSP5−8.5) on rice yield in study area. The results showed that: (1) from 2021 to 2060, the rice yield in most areas of Sichuan and Chongqing would increase by 10.0% to 30.0% compared with the historical yield, and the southern and southeastern areas of Sichuan would decrease by 0 to 10%. (2) Under future climate change, the change of mean climate (precipitation and radiation) and extreme climate (high temperature and drought) would reduce rice yield by 0 to 2.0% in most areas of Sichuan and Chongqing, and the change of extreme state of precipitation would reduce rice yield by 0 to 2.0% in Chongqing and Dazhou. The impact of temperature on yield of early and late rice was very different. The impact of precipitation and radiation on yield of early and late rice was basically the same. During 2021−2060, the temperature, precipitation and radiation in most areas showed an upward trend, while the precipitation in a few areas (Chongqing and Panzhihua) showed a downward trend. While the change of precipitation and radiation, drought and high temperature led to the decrease of rice production in study area. The mean climate of radiation and the extreme climate of drought contributed most to rice yield under future SSP1−2.6 and SSP5−8.5, respectively. Under future climate change, the high and stable yield of rice should be ensured under extreme drought and high temperature events in Sichuan-Chongqing area.

Key words:

Sichuan-Chongqing area, Rice yield, Panel model, Extreme climate index, Climate index