中国农业气象 ›› 2024, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (12): 1507-1520.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2024.12.011

• 农业气象灾害 栏目 • 上一篇    下一篇

宁夏主栽苹果晚霜冻害风险评估与区划

马梦瑶,张晓煜,杨永娥,梁小娟,张志伟   

  1. 1.宁夏大学葡萄酒与园艺学院,银川 750021;2.中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室,银川 750002;3.宁夏气象科学研究所,银川 750002
  • 收稿日期:2023-08-29 出版日期:2024-12-20 发布日期:2024-12-20
  • 作者简介:马梦瑶,E-mail:EP_LeViosa@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    科技部科技助力经济2020重点专项项目(KJZLJJ202003);自治区重点研发计划重点项目(2022BBF02014)

Risk Assessment of Late Frost Damage and Zoning of Mainly Cultivated Apple in Ningxia

MA Meng-yao, ZHANG Xiao-yu, YANG Yong-e, LIANG Xiao-juan, ZHANG Zhi-wei   

  1. 1. College of Enology and Horticulture, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China; 2.Key Laboratory of Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Agricultural Meteorological Disasters in Arid Areas, China Meteorological Administration, Yinchuan 750002; 3.Ningxia Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Yinchuan 750002
  • Received:2023-08-29 Online:2024-12-20 Published:2024-12-20

摘要:

以宁夏主栽苹果‘嘎啦’和‘富士’花蕾期、盛花期、坐果期和幼果期的花朵和果实为试验材料,分析各生育期不同低温处理下苹果子房受冻率。建立低温与苹果子房受冻率模拟方程,明确20%50%80%受冻率下霜冻指标,确定苹果不同生育期轻、中、重度霜冻指标。利用1981−2022年宁夏19个气象站日最低气温观测资料,结合数理统计和GIS空间分析方法,对宁夏霜冻发生范围、频率强度致灾因子危险性特征进行分析,构建承灾体脆弱性指数与暴露度指数,分析宁夏各地区苹果晚霜冻灾害风险差异,评估宁夏苹果霜冻灾害风险。结果表明:宁夏‘嘎啦’和‘富士’苹果晚霜冻害发生集中在420−510日盛花期和坐果期‘嘎啦’‘富士’苹果晚霜冻高危险地区主要分布在中南部近山脉地区,其中泾源、西吉隆德最高,危险性指数Hi0.3宁夏苹果高暴露度区主要分布在平罗、银川市东南部、吴忠市的利通区和红寺堡区少部分区域、灵武市西,以及中卫市部分区域,暴露度系数为0.7~1.0‘嘎啦’苹果霜冻风险的地区分布在北部灵武西部、沙坡头西部和中宁县中部,南部的西吉县和隆德县;‘富士’苹果霜冻高风险地区分布于灵武西部、西吉县和隆德县大部分地区;‘嘎啦’‘富士’苹果不可种植区主要位于贺兰山沿山、罗山、南华山六盘山等沿山地区。嘎啦苹果耐霜能力高于‘富士’苹果但由于‘嘎啦’物候期比‘富士’提前,‘嘎啦’霜冻风险高于‘富士’。区划结果较好地反映了宁夏‘嘎啦’‘富士’苹果晚霜冻害风险分布情况,可为当地苹果区域化布局、防灾减灾提供科学依据。

关键词: 苹果, 耐霜性, 晚霜冻, 风险区划

Abstract:

Flowers and fruits collected from the two major apple varieties (Gala’ and Fuji) grown in Ningxia during the bud, full-bloom, fruiting and young fruit setting stages were used as test material for the cryogenic treatments, and then the freezing rates of the ovaries under different cryogenic treatments were counted and analyzed. The Logistic equations established for the 20%, 50% and 80% freeze rates were set as the indicators of light, moderate and severe frost damage, respectively. The daily minimum temperature data collected in 19 meteorological stations from 1981 to 2022 were used to analyze the scope, frequency, intensity, and risk characteristics of disaster−causing factors of frost occurrence in Ningxia from the point of view of climatic disaster, by the means of mathematical statistics and spatial analysis. The classification of frost risk was completed by analyzing the difference in risk of late frost damage to apples in various regions of Ningxia, based on a combination of the vulnerability index and the exposure index of the affected apple. The results showed that the late frost damage to ‘Gala’ and ‘Fuji’ apple in Ningxia often occurred between 20 April and 10 May during the flowering and fruit setting period. The high−risk areas of late frost damage to ‘Gala’ and ‘Fuji’ apple were mainly located in the south-central areas close to the mountain ranges, among which Jingyuan, Xiji, and Longde were the highest risk areas, with a risk index of Hi0.3. The suitable areas for apple cultivation were mainly in Pingluo, the southeastern part of Yinchuan, the Litong district of Wuzhong, the western part of Linwu, and parts of Zhongwei city, with an exposure index of 0.7−1.0. The high risk areas for ‘Gala’ were located in the western part of Lingwu, the western part of Shapotou, and the central parts of Zhongning county in the northern Ningxia, and Xiji county and Longde county in the southern Ningxia. The high risk area for Fuji was located in the western part of Lingwu, Xiji county and most part of Longde county. Unsuitable areas for ‘Gala’ and Fuji’ apple were mainly located along the Helan, Luoshan, Nanhua and Liupan mountain areas. In terms of frost resistance, Gala apple is stronger than Fuji’ apple, and the resistance of Gala’ apple is decreasing as the phenology evolves, since the phenological phase of Gala’ is earlier than that of Fuji’ apple. According to the frost damage zoning maps, Gala’ is in higher risk than Fuji. The zoning results reflected the actual distribution of late frost risk for Gala’ and Fuji’ apple cultivated in Ningxia. The zoning map is providing a scientific baseline for the proper distribution of apply cultivation as well as for the disaster prevention and mitigation in Ningxia.

Key words: Apple, Frost resistance, Late frost, Risk zoning