关键词: 梨花花期, 始花期预测模型, 旅游气象指数, 赏花期气象指数

Abstract:

Based on the phenological observation data of pear blossom flowering periods and meteorological data in Chengdu Lihuaxi scenic area from 1999 to 2024, this study clarified the variation characteristics of the pear blossom flowering period (from the first flowering to the end flowering). It used Pearson correlation analysis to screen out the main meteorological factors affecting the first flowering. Based on these factors, a simulation model for the first flowering was developed by using stepwise regression. The period of the pear blossoms was defined as the optimal flower−viewing period. Combining human comfort conditions, precipitation conditions and wind conditions, a meteorological index for the flower appreciation of pear blossom in Lihuaxi scenic area was constructed. The aim was to provide scientific meteorological support for public flower appreciation activities and scenic area management. The results showed that: (1) the flowering period of pear blossoms in Chengdu Lihuaxi scenic area spaned from March 1 to April 10, with no significant trend in temporal change from 1999 to 2024. (2) Temperature was the key meteorological factor affecting the first flowering date of pear blossoms in Chengdu Lihuaxi scenic area. The first flowering was negatively correlated with the temperature starting from mid January and the effective accumulated temperature of ≥0℃, ≥5℃ and ≥10℃ in the previous winter. A prediction model for the first flowering of pear blossoms in Chengdu Lihuaxi scenic area was established via stepwise regression, and the factors composing the model included the effective accumulated temperature of ≥0℃, the average maximum temperature in mid January, the average minimum temperature in mid February. Validation showed that in 80% of cases the predicted first flower date differed from the observed date by less than 5d, with a mean absolute error of 3.4d. The simulation result was relatively satisfactory (P<0.01). (3) The constructed meteorological index of flower appreciation in Chengdu Lihuaxi scenic area was categorized into 4 levels: very suitable, suitable, moderately suitable and unsuitable for flower viewing. Specifically, the index was rated as very suitable when the blooming rate of pear blossoms was the highest (stable above 50%) and the tourist meteorological index was very good (the most suitable for human comfort with no daytime precipitation and strong wind). The index was suitable when the blooming rate was relatively high (gradually opened to 50% form first flowering or decreased from 50% until most flowers fallen off) and the tourist meteorological index was very good, or when the blooming rate was the highest and the tourist meteorological index was good (sub−suitable for human comfort with no daytime precipitation and strong wind). The index was moderately suitable when the blooming rate was relatively high and the tourist meteorological index was general (the most suitable or sub−suitable for human comfort with light rain and no strong wind during daytime). The index was unsuitable when the tourist meteorological index was bad (unsuitable for human comfort, moderate rain or heavier or strong wind during daytime). Combining the flowering period and tourism meteorological conditions, this index can provide guidance for the public to appreciate flowers and has favorable application value and potential in the subsequent tourism meteorological services.

Key words: Pear blossom flowering, First flowering forecasting model, Tourist meteorological index, Meteorological index of flower appreciation