中国农业气象

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于SPI的近41年(1965-2005)河北省旱涝时空特征分析

车少静;李春强;申双和;   

  1. 南京信息工程大学应用气象学院;石家庄市气象局;河北省气象科学研究所/河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室;
  • 出版日期:2010-02-10 发布日期:2010-02-10
  • 基金资助:
    河北省科技支撑计划项目(09276903D);; 河北省重点基础研究项目(08966711D)

Analysis of Drought-flood Spatial-temporal Characteristics Based on Standard Precipitation Index(SPI) in Heibei Province during 1965-2005

CHE Shao-jing1,2,LI Chun-qiang3,SHEN shuang-he1(1.School of Applied Meteorology,NUIST,Nanjing 210044,China;2.Shijiazhuang Meteorologocal Bureau,Shijiazhuang 050081;3.Meteorological Institute of Hebei Province/Hebei Provincial Key Lab for Meteorology and Eco-environment,Shijiazhuang 050021)   

  • Online:2010-02-10 Published:2010-02-10

摘要: 河北省是旱涝频发地区之一。本文基于1965-2005年河北省84个气象站的逐月降水数据,采用标准化降水指数(SPI)、正交经验分解函数和旋转正交经验分解函数等方法,分析了近41a河北省旱涝时空变化分布特征。结果表明:河北省旱涝总体上呈阶段性变化特征,1965-1972年和1997-2005年干旱比较频繁,1973-1996年干旱频率较低;20世纪70年代和90年代前中期为雨涝比较频繁阶段。春秋季干旱呈减轻趋势,夏季干旱呈加剧趋势(不显著),冬季旱涝变化趋势不明显,但90年代以来河北省极端季节旱涝事件比较频繁。在空间上,河北省旱涝分布可分为东部、北部、南部和西部四个不同的区域,四个区域的旱涝总体上具有相对一致的大趋势,但在某些时段也表现出一定的南北差异和东西差异。河北省全省20世纪90年代后期旱涝变率最大,70年代前期和末期变率也较大,80年代变率最小;四个区域总体上表现出与全省大致相同的趋势,只是2000年以后南部地区旱涝变率持续较高。

关键词: 标准化降水指数(SPI), 旱涝, 时空特征, 河北省

Abstract: Drought is one of the major natural hazards in Hebei province.Based on standard precipitation index(SPI),the spatial-temporal characteristics of drought-flood in Hebei province during 1965-2005 were studied by empirical orthogonal function method.The results showed that drought-flood varies with time,in total.Drought was more severe in the periods of 1965-1972 and 1997-2005,and flood was more frequent in 1970s and early 1990s.Occurrence of drought in spring and autumn tends to decrease,while in summer tends to be more severe.There was no obvious change for winter.However,extreme drought and water logging hazards were frequent in Hebei province since 1990s.Hebei could be divided into four sub-regions(east,north,south and west) in terms of the spatial distribution of drought and water logging.There was a consistence among these regions and the whole province,though there were north-south gaps and east-west gaps.The most drastic drought-flood changes had occurred in the 1990s.These Changes were also obvious in the early 1970s,but lest obvious in the 1980s.But,the change rate had been high in the south part since 2000.

Key words: Standard precipitation index(SPI), Standard precipitation index(SPI), Drought-flood, Spatial-temporal characteristics, Hebei province