关键词: 川明参, 最大熵模型, 生态适应性, 主导气候因子, 预测

Abstract: Based on the distribution of Chuanminshen violaceum Sheh et Shan (C. violaceum) obtained from field investigation and literature, and the data of three future climate scenarios presented by CMIP6, a relationship model between potential distribution and environmental factors was established to analyze the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of C. violaceum in Sichuan, and to simulate and verify the distribution law and suitable range of C. violaceum in the background of climate change. The result showed that: the key environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of C. violaceum were annual precipitation, precipitation of the coldest quarter, the minimum temperature of the coldest month and temperature annual range. The thresholds for the moderately suitable and above regions were 874.0−1231.2mm, 22.1−83.9mm, −4.4−3.5℃ and 25.0−31.2℃. In the historical period (2000−2020) under the current climate scenario, the suitable regions of C. violaceum mainly concentrated in the bottom of Sichuan basin, the mountainous regions along the basin and the eastern of Panxi plateau, with a total area of 21.49×10⁴km². Compared with the historical period, the highly suitable areas of C. violaceum would decrease by 14.07% and 10.04% under SSP1−2.6 and SSP2−4.5 scenarios，while it would increase by 3.46% under SSP5−8.5 scenarios in the 2050s. The moderately suitable area of C. violaceum would increase by 27.36%, 10.94% and 30.66%. The highly suitable areas would decrease by 40.89%, 33.53% and 36.71% in the 2090s, while the moderately suitable area would increase by 4.85%, 20.05% and 8.9%. In order to cope with the adverse effects of climate change on the growth and development of C. violaceum in the future, the protection of wild germplasm resources of C. violaceum should be carried out based on the existing major producing areas, such as Chengdu, Bazhong, Guangyuan and Nanchong. At the same time, work such as seed selection, seedling breeding and good gene storage, should be carried out, also artificial cultivation should be vigorously promoted to develop characteristic industries and indirectly protect wild resources.

Key words: Chuanminshen violaceum Sheh et Shan, MaxEnt, Ecological suitability, Dominant climate factor, Potential distribution