关键词: Venlo型玻璃温室, 温度季节预报模型, 神经网络, 随机森林, 支持向量机

Abstract: The seasonal temperature forecasting models in greenhouse based on multiple regression (MR), BP artificial neural networks (BPANN), random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) were constructed using meteorological observations inside and outside the Venlo-type glass greenhouses from 27th February 2021 to 4th March 2023 at Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, and then to validate all the models. The results showed that the fitting accuracy of the seasonal forecasting models for daily average and minimum air temperatures in the greenhouse was significantly higher than that of the seasonal forecasting models for daily maximum air temperature; the fitting accuracy of each model for air temperature inside the greenhouse in spring, summer and autumn was higher than that for winter. For the seasonal forecasting models of daily average air temperature and minimum air temperature, the fitting accuracy of the spring, summer and autumn forecasting models constructed by the four algorithms was higher, but the simulation effect of the RF model was more stable, and the coefficient of determination (R2) of the simulated values and the actual observed values were above 0.94, and the root mean square error (RMSE) and absolute error (MAE) were within 1.5℃. For the seasonal forecast models of daily maximum temperature, the fitting accuracy of RF model for spring, summer and autumn was higher than other models in general, and its R2 value was above 0.75. The MR model had higher accuracy for winter indoor air temperature and was more suitable for predicting winter greenhouse air temperature. The study concluded that it is feasible to choose the RF model to forecast the air temperature inside the glass greenhouse in spring, summer and autumn and the MR model to forecast the air temperature inside the glass greenhouse in winter, and this study can provide an important reference for the seasonal forecast of air temperature in Venlo-type glass greenhouse.

Key words: Venlo-type glass greenhouse, Seasonal temperature forecasting model, Neural networks, Random forest, Support vector machine