中国农业气象 ›› 2024, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (6): 657-668.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2024.06.008

• 农业气象灾害 栏目 • 上一篇    下一篇

鲁西南区域性高温干旱复合事件特征及危险性分析

李瑞英,吕桂恒,郝晓雷,樊杰,江晓东   

  1. 1.山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,济南 250031;2.山东省菏泽市气象局,菏泽 274000;3.江苏省农业气象重点实验室/南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,南京 210044
  • 收稿日期:2023-06-30 出版日期:2024-06-20 发布日期:2024-06-17
  • 通讯作者: 江晓东,副教授,主要从事农业气象研究,E-mail:jiangxd@nuist.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:李瑞英,E-mail:lirycg@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41875140);山东省气象局科研项目(2021SDYD26)

Characteristics and Dangerous Analysis on Regional Compound High Temperature and Drought Events in Southwest of Shandong Province

LI Rui-ying, LV Gui-heng, HAO Xiao-lei, FAN Jie, JIANG Xiao-dong   

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong Province, Jinan 250031, China; 2.Meteorological Bureau of Heze City, Heze 274000; 3.Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology/ School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044
  • Received:2023-06-30 Online:2024-06-20 Published:2024-06-17

摘要: 基于山东西南部28个气象观测站1991−2022年3−10月逐日气温和降水量数据,根据区域性高温过程等级划分标准和区域性干旱过程监测评估方法,识别区域性高温、干旱及高温干旱复合事件,并开展相应的发生特征和致灾危险性分析。结果表明:(1)山东西南部区域性高温事件发生频次显著增多,开始日期显著提前,高温强度呈微弱增强变化;区域性干旱事件具有连发特征,发生频次增加,干旱强度趋于减弱;高温干旱复合事件集中发生于6−7月,发生频次增加,开始日期有所提前。(2)高温致灾危险性分布区域与高温强度分布区域基本一致,自西向东递减,高危险性区域主要分布在西部;干旱致灾危险性分布区域与干旱强度分布区域基本一致,自南向北递减,高危险性区域主要分布在南部;高温干旱复合致灾危险性分布区域与高温危险性区域分布规律较为相似,危险性自西向东递减。(3)随着气候变暖,山东西南部未来发生高温、干旱和高温干旱复合事件的风险加大。

关键词: 高温干旱复合, 特征, 信息扩散理论, 危险性

Abstract: Based on the daily temperature, precipitation data and other factors of 28 meteorological stations in southwest of Shandong province from March to October, 1991 to 2022, the regional high temperature events, drought events, compound high temperature and drought events were identified, according to the classification of regional high temperature weather process, monitoring and assessment method of regional drought process, the characteristics and hazard dangers were analyzed. The results showed that: (1)the frequency of regional high temperature events increased significantly, the start time was significantly advanced, the intensity increased weakly. Regional drought events had recurrent features with increased frequency and a weakening trend in intensity. Compound high temperature and drought events were concentrated in June-July with increased frequency and earlier start time. (2)The dangerous areas of high temperature were basically with intensity areas, decreasing from west to east, the highest dangerous areas were distributed in west. Drought danger areas were essentially intensity zones, decreasing from south to north, with the highest danger areas located in the south. Dangerous regions of compound heat and drought were more similar to dangerous regions of heat, decreasing from west to east. (3)The risk of high temperature events, drought events and compound events will be occurring greater with the climate warming in southwest of Shandong province.

Key words: Compound high temperature and drought, Characteristics, Information diffusion theory, Dangerous