关键词: 河北省, 气候影响因子, 冬小麦, 气候产量

Abstract: Based on data of winter wheat yield and climate data of winter wheat region in Hebei province,by using improved separation method of climate yield from actual yield,quantitative analysis were conducted about impacts of climate warming on winter wheat yield.The results showed that the winter temperature in winter wheat region had upward trend,averaging each 10 years rose 0.5℃,and the spring temperature was also rising,averaging each 10 years rose 0.3℃.The winter wheat yield had no correlation with winter,spring precipitation,but had considerable correlation with winter,spring temperature.Along with the social development,improved varieties and improved cultivation techniques,the actual yield of Hebei province winter wheat was increasing year by year,each 10 years increased 1125 kg/ha approximately.The change of the climate yield was significantly different with that of actual yield,the fluctuation of climate yield became more and more larger as the climate warming,consequently leading to ±300 kg/ha fluctuation in recent years.The future climate warming isn't conducive to winter wheat production and climate yield will decrease as a result of climate warming,average each 10 years reduced 52.7 kg/ha.The fluctuation of the wheat yield caused by temperature was generally between ± 10%,but losses of wheat yield caused by climate warming was more and more big during to gradually increased yield.

Key words: Hebei Province, Hebei Province, Climate warming, Winter wheat, Climate yield