关键词: 气温变化, 线性倾向估计, Mann Kendall法

Abstract: Based on 1960-2009 temperature observation data collected from 37 meteorological stations in Guangdong province，the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of average temperature change over recent 50 years was identified by using linear trend estimation，M K mutation testing methods，to find out the spatial temporal variation characteristics of average temperature in Guangdong and provide scientific basis for using and development the climate resources in Guangdong reasonably. The results showed that annual and seasonal average temperature in Guangdong had increased since 1980s，with annual rising rate of 0.20℃/10y（P＜0.05）.Winter had greatest contribution to the warming. Its changing rate reached 0.34℃/10y（P＜0.05）. Temperature variation was unbalanced over Guangdong province. Guangdong pearl river delta and the southeastern coastal region had the most significant〖JP2〗 temperature increase. Its annual warming rate reached 0.25～0.40℃/10y（P＜0.05） and winter′s reached 0.43～0.55℃/10y（P＜0.05）.Warming mutations occurred early，mostly from 1980s and changed dramatically in those areas. In northern Guangdong province，temperature variation was less significant. In spring and summer，annual temperature drop even happened in northeastern region. Except for winter，the temperature mutation test results in other seasons were not significant.

Key words: Temperature change, Linear trend method, Mann Kendall test