关键词: 气候倾向率, 平均气温变化趋势, 降水量变化趋势, 产量趋势系数, 影响率, 贡献率

Abstract: Based on the data of climate and observations data at seven agro meteorological stations of Jiangsu province during 1981 to 2009,authors investigated the effects of climate change on rice yields in Jiangsu province by the basic equation of mean temperature and precipitation influence to the rice yield and defining the contribution rate of the mean temperature and precipitation trend on rice yield trend.The results showed that the mean temperature and minimum temperature had an increasing trend during the whole rice growth season in Jiangsu province,but maximum temperature in southern and northern Jiangsu had a different trend for the last 30 years,which had an increasing trend in southern part and a decreasing trend in northern part from flowering to maturing.The relationship between temperature (including mean temperature,minimum temperature and maximum temperature)and rice production was positive,and the warming trend increased rice yield by about 1.2%,and the contribution rate to yield trend accounted for 30.0% during 1981 to 2009.Trend in precipitation was not obvious,increased slightly in the northern part while decreased slightly in the southern part.The relationship between precipitation and rice yields was not obvious either,so the effects of the precipitation trends on rice yields were small.In general,rice productivity in Jiangsu province benefited from climate change during the last 30 years.

Key words: Climate tendency rate, Mean temperature trend, Precipitation trend, Yield trend ratio, Influence rate, Contribution rate