关键词: 库尔勒香梨, 始花期, 影响因子, 预测模型

Abstract: Based on observed phenophase data and ground meteorological data of Korla meteorology station from 1980 to 2010, the meteorological factors of affecting the beginning date of the Korla fragrant pear flowering were analyzed. 〖JP2〗The results showed that beginning date of the Korla fragrant pear flowering advanced earlier in last 31 years(P＜0.01).〖JP〗 There was significant negative relationship between the beginning date of the Korla fragrant pear flowering and average temperature of spring and winter, as well as ground temperature with different depth in spring. There was significant positive relationship between the beginning date and daily mean temperature above 5°C and 10°C for five consecutive days. Prediction model for the beginning date of the Korla fragrant pear flowering was established by using of Partial Least Squares Regression method.

Key words:  Korla fragrant pear, First flowering date, Influence factor, Prediction model