关键词: WOFOST模型, 玉米, 模拟生物量, 气象适宜程度, 诊断指标

Abstract: Based on daily meteorological data of 164 meteorological stations, maize yield data of 164 counties and maize growth and development period data of 30 agro meteorological experiment stations from 1981 to 2007, authors established the meteorological suitability degree diagnosis model of maize growth in Northeast China. By using the diagnosis model, the comprehensive meteorological suitability indices were calculated during the main development stages of maize (sowing to emergence, emergence to jointing, jointing to anthesis, anthesis to milk ripe, milk ripe to mature). The maize biomass was simulated by applying WOFOST model. The meteorological suitability diagnosis index of maize during the different developmental stage was determined based on the simulated biomass (total aboveground dry matter weight, storage weight) by optimization method. Used the diagnosis index, the meteorological suitability degree of maize during different growth stage was evaluated dynamically and quantitatively. And during the whole growth period of maize in 2006, the meteorological suitability evaluation results were compared and verified as an example. The results indicated that the evaluation results based on WOFOST model and those based on compositive meteorological suitability index were in substantial agreement, grade identical and differ by one grade accounted for 85%-90%. It was in substantial agreement with the monitoring bulletin of agro meteorological department. The evaluation results based on WOFOST model can provide decision making for maize production to adapt to climate change, the evaluation index can be popularized and applied in agro meteorological service.

Key words: WOFOST model, Maize, Simulation biomass, Meteorological suitability degree, Diagnostic index