关键词: 冰雹, 高空冷涡型, 高空冷槽型, 横槽型, 西北气流型, 潜势, 预报

Abstract: The temporal evolution and spatial distribution features,weather situation and the potential forecasting and short-time nowcasting models of hailstone were studied,by using methods of mathematical statistics,synoptic meteorology and physical quantity calculating,based on 105 hailstorm data from 1977 to 2009 in Fuxin city, Liaoning province.The results showed that the temporal and spatial distribution of hailstone was not uniform.It occurred usually from the noon to the evening (12:00pm to 19:00pm) diurnal,mainly during 14:00 to 17:00.It occurred usually from May to September monthly,mainly in June and July.Besides,it occurred in northeast and northwest more than in southeast and southwest,partly because of different land scapeAccording to weather situation of 500hPa,the hailstorm weather was divided into four types,namely cold-whorl,upper-groove,sidelong-groove and north-west airflow.The short-term tendency and prediction model was established by selecting five forecast factors,θse（850-500）,specific humidity at 850hPa,T850-500,U700-850 and K index,which had apparent physical significance to hail weather,and predicated successfully two hail weather process in August 2011,which indicated that the tendency and short-term prediction model improved the accuracy of hail forecast.

Key words: Hailstone, Cold-whorl, Upper-groove, Sidelong-groove, North-west airflow, Potential, Forecast