关键词: 天津, 棉花, 气候适宜度, 产量预报, 动态预报

Abstract: A climatic suitability evaluation model of cotton in Tianjin was established,considering temperature,sunlight and water demand.The climatic suitable index of cotton was calculated with three climatic factors in the past years,a dynamic prediction model of cotton was established.The results showed that temperature suitable index(TSI)of cotton increased at the rate of 0.016/10y from 1964 to 2009,sunlight suitable index(SSI)of cotton decreased at the rate of 0.025/10y from 1964 to 2009,and precipitation suitable index(PSI)of cotton changed little in the past years.The dynamic prediction model of cotton yield was established by regression analysis based on the meteorological data from 1995 to 2009.The model for seeding stage,budding stage,boll forming stage and boll opening stage passed significance testing(P<0.05).The result of running the model with historical data showed that it got a higher accuracy since 2000,in which 87.5% of years accuracy rate was more than 80%,and average rate in each growth stage was more than 88%.The accuracy rate of dynamic prediction model was more than 95.5% for 2010 and 2011,which indicated that the model could meet the demand of agro-meteorological services.

Key words: Tianjin, Cotton, Climatic suitable index, Yield prediction, Dynamic prediction