关键词: 华南, 水稻, 干旱灾害, 评估, 模型

Abstract: Using yield and growth period data of 174 counties in South China（Guangdong and Guangxi province）， drought index of each growth period of late rice was calculated by daily meteorological drought indicator（DI）， drought disaster evaluation model was constructed and temporal spatial characteristics of the drought disaster was analyzed in the paper. The results showed that， （1）average drought year frequency of late rice in recent 30 years （1981-2010） in South China was 7.1%， where light drought accounts for main part， medium and above almost never. Mean yield reduction rate of drought was 0.66%. Drought disaster mainly occurs in seedling to 3leaf stage and milkripe to mature stage of late rice. （2）Spatial distribution of late rice drought frequency and yield reduction rate were high in west and low in east in South China. Relative high incidence areas locate in northeast Guangxi province， where the drought frequency was above 10% and the yield reduction rate was more than 1%. （3）The driest 6 years of late rice in recent 30 years in South China were 1992， 1990， 1989， 1991， 2009 and 2004. Considering the region as whole， statistically significant lighten trend of drought was observed in seeding to 3leaf stage of late rice during recent 30 years， nevertheless， there was no statistically significant trend of drought was observed in the whole growth period and milkripe to mature stage of the late rice. （4）Stations that drought of the whole growth period of late rice tend to intensify account for 69%， among which 3.4% stations were statistically significant （above 0.1 level）. Stations that drought of the milkripe to mature stage tend to intensify account for 94.8%， among which 36.2% stations were statistically significant， located mainly in Guangxi and north Guangdong. Stations that drought of the seeding to 3leaf stage tend to lighten account for 75.9%， among which 16.1% stations were statistically significant， located mainly in the area from Chongzuo to Wuzhou of Guangxi province. The study provides scientific basis for drought disaster mitigation， climate change adaptation policy making and environment diplomacy.

Key words: South China, Rice, Drought disaster, Evaluation, Model