气象灾害对福建粮食产量影响的灰色关联分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2016.01.010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

根据1984-2013年福建省农业统计数据，分析全省粮食产量和气象灾害的变化特征；在划分气象灾害和粮食作物类型的基础上，分别从受灾范围和灾害强度角度，利用灰色关联模型分析1984-1993、1994-2003、2004-2013年3个阶段内气象灾害对粮食生产的影响。结果表明：（1）气象灾害对福建省粮食生产影响较大，研究期内受灾范围的影响不断降低，而灾害强度的影响不断增大，粮食作物对灾害强度的影响更敏感，因此防灾重点应从减少受灾范围逐步转移至降低高强度灾害所造成的损失；（2）风雹受灾范围对福建省粮食生产尤其对大豆和薯类产量具有重大影响。近年来，台风受灾范围对粮食生产的危害日益凸显，逐步成为关键影响因子；（3）水灾灾害强度对福建省粮食生产尤其对小麦和薯类产量具有重大影响。

关键词: 粮食生产, 气象灾害, 作物类型, 受灾范围, 灾害强度

Abstract:

Based on the statistics of agriculture from 1984 to 2013 in Fujian province, the change features of grain outputs and meteorological disasters were analyzed. Based on dividing the types of meteorological disasters and grains, grey correlation model is aimed to analyze the effects of meteorological disasters on food production from the angles of scope and intensity of meteorological disasters in the years of 1984-1993, 1994-2003 and 2004-2013 respectively. The results showed that: (1)Meteorological disasters had great impacts on grain production in Fujian province. The impact of disaster-affected range was decreasing, while increasing in the intensity of disasters; Grain outputs were more sensitive to the effects of disaster intensity. Thus, the focus of disaster prevention should be shifted from reducing disaster-affected range to decline the losses caused by the disasters of high intensity.(2)The scope of wind-hail had great impacts on food production in Fujian Province, especially for soybean and potato. Recently, typhoon had come to become the key factor endangering the food production. (3)The intensity of flood had great impacts on food production in Fujian Province, especially for wheat and potato.

Key words: Food production, Meteorological disasters, Grain types, Disaster-affected range, Disaster intensity

林志宇，田贵良. 气象灾害对福建粮食产量影响的灰色关联分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2016, 37(01): 77-83.

LIN Zhi-yu, TIAN Gui-liang. Grey Correlation Analysis of Meteorological Disasters Affecting Grain Yields in Fujian Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2016, 37(01): 77-83.

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