气候变化背景下中国主要作物农业气象灾害时空分布特征[Ⅰ]：东北春玉米延迟型冷害

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2016.05.012

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于东北三省春玉米潜在种植区内65个气象站点1961-2010年逐日气象数据，以气象行业标准5-9月逐月平均气温之和与其多年平均值的距平作为春玉米冷害等级判断指标，分析东北三省春玉米生育期冷害发生概率的空间分布和年代际演变特征，并利用每月逐日平均气温与其多年平均值的距平值明确了春玉米生长时段内低温事件发生风险较大的月份。结果表明：（1）近50a（1961-2010年）东北三省春玉米冷害发生区域范围大小表现为重度＞轻度＞中度，其中轻度冷害的高发区位于吉林省西部，低发区位于辽宁省南部地区；中度冷害主要发生于黑龙江和吉林省部分地区，辽宁省发生较少；重度冷害高发区位于黑龙江省北部、东南部以及吉林省东部地区，发生频率在25%以上，低发区位于辽宁省中西部，发生频率低于5%。各等级冷害发生频率年际间总体呈下降趋势，近20a（1991-2010年），各等级冷害的发生范围明显缩小。（2）东北三省春玉米各等级冷害低温事件主要发生在5月和6月，生产实际中需关注5月和6月的温度变化及冷害发生。

关键词: 冷害, 温度距平, 站次比, 频率

Abstract: Based on daily meteorological data from 65 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2010 in the potential areas of spring maize in Northeast China, the spatial and temporal distribution of chilling damage for spring maize was analyzed. The deviations of total monthly mean temperature from May to September were used as the chilling damage index, according to meteorological standard. Meanwhile, the highest risk of occurrence for chilling damage during entire growing season was also identified. The results showed that: (1) During the past 50 years (1961-2010), the area suffered chilling damage was severe＞slight＞moderate. The higher occurrence of slight chilling damage was in the west of Jilin province and the lower value located in the south of Liaoning province. The higher occurrence of moderate chilling damage distributed in several regions of Heilongjiang province and Jilin province, and the lower values located in Liaoning province. The higher occurrence (more than 25%) of severe chilling damage was in the north and south-east of Heilongjiang province and the east of Jilin province, and the lower values (less than 5%) located in the west and middle of Liaoning province. The frequency of all levels of chilling damage decreased during the past 5 decades. In recent 20 years (1991-2010), disaster occurred area decreased significantly. (2) All levels of chilling damage for spring maize mainly occurred in May and June in the study areas. Therefore, the temperature changes and the chilling damage in May and June should be paid more attentions in maize production.

Key words: Chilling damage, Temperature deviations, Station proportion, Frequency

张梦婷, 刘志娟, 杨晓光, 董朝阳, 刘子琪. 气候变化背景下中国主要作物农业气象灾害时空分布特征[Ⅰ]：东北春玉米延迟型冷害[J]. 中国农业气象, 2016, 37(05): 599-610.

ZHANG Meng-ting, LIU Zhi-juan, YANG Xiao-guang, DONG Chao-yang, LIU Zi-qi. Temporal and Spatial Variations of Agro-meteorological Disasters of Major Crops in China under the Background of Climate Change[I]: Delayed Chilling Damage of Spring Maize in Northeast China[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2016, 37(05): 599-610.

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