福建省春种马铃薯寒冻害风险区划

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2017.12.008

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了探究福建春种马铃薯寒冻害风险分布情况，利用马铃薯春种区45个县（市）的历年气象、产量和农业经济资料，在分析马铃薯寒冻害危险性、脆弱性和防寒防冻能力的基础上，构建马铃薯寒冻害风险区划指标，应用层次分析法、熵权系数法、加权综合评价法等确定风险区划指标权重和风险指数，构建福建省马铃薯春种区寒冻害风险区划指标和模型，基于GIS技术对福建省春种马铃薯的寒冻害风险进行区划。结果表明：福建省春种马铃薯的寒冻害低风险区主要分布在低海拔区域，该区域适合春种马铃薯；中度寒冻害风险区主要分布在海拔中等的区域；重度以上的寒冻害风险区主要分布在鹫峰山区、武夷山区、戴云山区和博平岭山区的高海拔区域，其中海拔800m以上地域有严重寒冻害风险，不适宜早春种植马铃薯。在风险因素构成上，寒冻害致灾危险性在综合风险中起决定性作用，种植区防寒防冻能力仅能略微减轻寒冻害带来的风险。

关键词: 马铃薯, 寒冻害, 风险区划, 春种区, GIS

Abstract: This work was aimed to find out the risk-distribution of cold and freezing damage to spring planting potato in Fujian. Based on the output, meteorological and agricultural economic data from 45 counties during 1993-2014 in spring planting region of Fujian province over the years, to analyze potential hazards of cold and freezing damage, vulnerability of potato and the prevention measures of cold and freezing damage in the spring planting region were analyzed; and the index system of risk division for cold and freezing damage of potato were constructed. The weight coefficient of risk regionalization index and risk exponent were worked out by applying the AHP, entropy-weight coefficient and comprehensive weighting methods; and also, the risk regionalization index and model of cold and freezing damage to potato in the spring planting in Fujian were worked out. Finally, the regionalizationon cold and freezing damage to potato in the springplanting in Fujian were made based on GIS. The results showed that the areas which had low risk of cold and freezing damage to potato locate in low altitude in spring planting region of Fujian Province. These regions are suitable for spring-planting potato. Moderate risk region of cold and freezing damage distributed mainly over medium altitude areas. Furthermore, Jiufengmountain, Wuyimountain, Daiyunmountain and Bopinglingmountain had severe risk of cold and freezing damage. The most severe risk exists in the region of more than 800 meters above sea level, where they aren’t suitable for early spring-planting potato. In terms of risk factor composition, potential hazard was the determinant factor of cold and freezing damage and prevention measures only mitigated this potential.

Key words: Potato, Cold and freezing damage, Risk division, Spring planting region, Geographic Information System

方洁，陈家金. 福建省春种马铃薯寒冻害风险区划[J]. 中国农业气象, 2017, 38(12): 812-821.

FANG Jie，CHEN Jia-jin. Risk Regionalization of Cold and Freezing Damage to Potato in Spring Planting Region of Fujian Province Based on Geographic Information Systems[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2017, 38(12): 812-821.

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