中国粮食主产区参考作物蒸散量演变特征与成因分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.04.004

中国农业气象 ›› 2018, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (04): 245-255.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.04.004

中国粮食主产区参考作物蒸散量演变特征与成因分析

杨永刚，崔宁博，胡笑涛，龚道枝

1．四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室/水利水电学院，成都 610065；2．南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室，成都 610066；3．西北农林科技大学旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室，杨凌 712100；4．中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所/作物高效用水与抗灾减损国家工程实验室，北京 100081

收稿日期:2017-07-30 出版日期:2018-04-20 发布日期:2018-04-17
作者简介:杨永刚（1994-），硕士生，主要从事节水灌溉理论与技术研究。E-mail：yangyonggangscu@163.com
基金资助:
国家科技支撑计划项目“精量低耗灌溉技术集成与示范”（2015BAD24B01）；国家重点研发计划课题“西北典型农区高效节水灌溉技术与集成应用”（2016YFC0400206）

Spatio-Temporal Variability and Cause Analysis of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in the Main Grain Producing Areas of China

YANG Yong-gang，CUI Ning-bo，HU Xiao-tao，GONG Dao-zhi

1．State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering & College of Water Resource and Hydropower，Sichuan University，Chengdu 610065，China; 2．Provincial Key Laboratory of Water-Saving Agriculture in Hill Areas of Southern China， Chengdu 610066; 3．Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas，Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University/Institute of Water-saving Agriculture in Arid Areas of China, Yangling 712100; 4．Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agriculture Science/State Engineering Laboratory for Efficient Water Use and Disaster Loss Reduction of Crops, Beijing 100081

Received:2017-07-30 Online:2018-04-20 Published:2018-04-17

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在全球变暖的背景下，参考作物蒸散量（reference crop evapotranspiration，ET0）的改变及其空间分布势必对中国粮食主产区农业水资源规划、农业用水管理等产生重要影响。本文将中国粮食主产区划分为温带湿润半湿润地区（I区）、温带干旱半干旱地区（II区）、暖温带半湿润地区（III区）和亚热带湿润地区（IV区）4个子区域，基于粮食主产区265个站点1961-2013年53a气象数据，采用FAO-56 Penman-Monteith公式计算各站点逐日ET0，利用ArcGIS空间插值、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、敏感性分析和贡献率分析等方法，对该区域ET0的时空分布规律及其成因进行分析。结果表明：（1）近53a来，中国粮食主产区年均ET0为878.9mm，整体呈显著下降趋势，速率为0.47mm·a^-1（P＜0.05），I、II区和IV区年均ET0分别为741.8、1079.8和924.2mm且均有所减小，但变化趋势并不明显，III区年均ET0为940.2mm，呈极显著下降趋势，速率为1.21mm·a^-1（P＜0.01）。（2）全区及I-IV区ET0最敏感气象因子均为相对湿度，其敏感系数分别为-1.060、-1.232、-0.784、-1.114和-1.009。（3）全区及I-III区对ET0变化贡献最大的气象因子为风速，IV区为相对湿度。（4）风速的减小是造成粮食主产区全区及I-III区ET0减小的首要原因，风速减小和日照时数缩短是造成IV区ET0减小的主要原因。

关键词: 粮食主产区, 参考作物蒸散量, 时空分布, 成因分析, 敏感性分析

Abstract:

Under the background of global warming, the change and spatial distribution of reference crop evapotranspiration are bound to have an important impact on agricultural water resources planning and agricultural water management in the main grain producing areas of China. The main grain producing areas of China was divided into temperate humid and semi-humid area (I area), temperate arid and semi-arid area (II area), warm temperate semi-humid area (III area) and subtropical humid area (IV area) according to the difference of heat and humidity. Based on daily meteorological data of the 265 stations in the main grain producing areas of China during 1961 to 2013, the daily ET0 was calculated by Penman-Monteith equation recommended by Food and Agriculture Organization in 1998. The temporal and spatial variation of ET0 and its influencing factors were analyzed by using Arcgis spatial interpolation, Mann-Kendall trend test, sensitivity analysis and contribution rate analysis. The results showed that the annual ET0 in major grain producing areas of China was 878.9mm and had a significant downward trend as a whole at the rate of 0.47mm·y-1(P＜0.05) in the past 53 years. The annual ET0 of I, II and IV area decreased with the value of 741.8mm, 1079.8mm and 924.2mm respectively, but the trends of changes were not obvious. The annual ET0 of III area was 940.2mm, which had an extremely significant downward trend with a rate of 1.21mm·y-1(P＜0.01). Sensitivity analysis indicated that relative humidity was the most sensitive meteorological factor to annual ET0 change in the whole and I-IV area, with the sensitivity coefficient of -1.060, -1.232, -0.784, -1.114 and-1.009，respectively. Contribution analysis showed that wind speed made the greatest contribution to ET0 changed in I-III and whole area, while relative humidity was the meteorological factor that contributed most to the change of ET0 in IV area. The decrease of wind speed was the dominant cause of ET0 decrease in I-III and whole area, and the main reason for the decrease of ET0 in IV area were the decrease of wind speed and the shortening of sunshine hours.

Key words: Main grain producing areas, Reference crop evapotranspiration, Temporal and spatial variability, Cause analysis, Sensitivity analysis

杨永刚，崔宁博，胡笑涛，龚道枝. 中国粮食主产区参考作物蒸散量演变特征与成因分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2018, 39(04): 245-255.

YANG Yong-gang，CUI Ning-bo，HU Xiao-tao，GONG Dao-zhi. Spatio-Temporal Variability and Cause Analysis of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in the Main Grain Producing Areas of China[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(04): 245-255.

参考文献

[1]Allen R G,Pereira L S,Raes D,et al.Crop evapotranspiration- guidelines for computing crop water requirements[M].Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nation,1998. [2]Shan N,Shi Z J,Yang X H,et al.Spatiotemporal trends of reference evapotranspiration and its driving factors in the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Control Project Region,China[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2015,200:322-333. [3]Li Z X,Feng Q,Liu W,et al.Spatial and temporal trend of potential evapotranspiration and related driving forces in Southwestern China,during 1961-2009[J].Quaternary Internati- onal,2014,336:127-144. [4]Zheng C L,Wang Q.Spatiotemporal variations of reference evapotranspiration in recent five decades in the arid land of Northwestern China[J].Hydrologic Processes,2014,28:6124- 6134. [5]刘园,王颖,杨晓光.华北平原参考作物蒸散量变化特征及气候影响因素[J].生态学报,2010,30(4):923-932. Liu Y,Wang Y,Yang X G.Trends in reference crop evapotran- spiration and possible climatic factors in the North China Plain[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2010,30(4):923-932.(in Chinese) [6]Du C Y,Yu J J,Wang P,et al.Reference evapotranspiration changes:sensitives to and contributions of meteorological factors in the Heihe River Basin of Northwestern China (1961-2014)[J].Advances in Meteorology,2016:1-17. [7]Zheng C L,Wang Q.Spatiotemporal pattern of the global sensitivity of the reference evapotranspiration to climatic variables in recent five decades over China[J].Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess,2015,29:1937-1947. [8]Huo Z L,Dai X Q,Feng S Y,et al.Effect of climate change on reference evapotranspiration and aridity index in arid region of China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2013,492:24-34. [9]高占义,王浩.中国粮食安全与与灌溉发展对策研究[J].水利学报,2008,39(11):1273-1278. Gao Z Y,Wang H.Strategy of grain security and irrigation development in China[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2008,39(11):1273-1278.(in Chinese) [10]杨贵羽,汪林,王浩.基于水土资源状况的中国粮食安全思考[J].农业工程学报,2010,26(12):1-5. Yang G Y,Wang L,Wang H.Thinking of food security in China based on regional water resources and land cultivation[J]. Transactions of the CSAE,2010,26(12):1-5.(in Chinese) [11]黄会平,曹明明,宋进喜,等.1957-2012年中国参考作物蒸散量时空变化及其影响因子分析[J].自然资源学报,2015,30 (2):316-326. Huang H P,Cao M M,Song J X,et al.Temporal and spatial changes of potential evapotranspirat and its influencing factors in China from 1957 to 2012[J].Journal of natural resources,2015,30(2):316-326.(in Chinese) [12]Jarvis P G,Mc Naughton K G.Stomatal control of transpiration:scaling up from leaf to region[J].Advances in Ecological Research,1986,15:1-49. [13]韩荣青,郑度,戴尔阜,等.中国粮食主产区生产潜力对气候波动响应研究[J].资源科学,2014,36(12):2611-2623. Han R Q,Zhen D,Dai E F,et al.Response of production potential to climate fluctuation in major grain regions of China[J]. Resources Science,2014,36(12):2611-2623.(in Chinese) [14]黄秉维.中国综合自然区划草案[J].科学通报,1959,(18): 594-602. Huang B W.Draft comprehensive natural regionalization of China[J].Chinese science bulletin,1959,(18):594-602.(in Chinese) [15]刘勤,严昌荣,梅旭荣,等.西北旱区参考作物蒸散量空间格局演变特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(1):48-53. Liu Q,Yan C R,Mei X R,et al.Spatial evolution of reference crop evapotranspiration in arid area of Northwest China[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2012,33(1): 48-53.(in Chinese) [16]李英杰,延军平,王鹏涛.北方农牧交错带参考作物蒸散量时空变化与成因分析[J].中国农业气象,2016,37(2): 166-173. Li Y J,Yan J P,Wang P T.Temporal and spatial change and causes analysis of the reference crop evapotranspiration in farming-pastroral ecotone of northern China[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2016,37(2):166-173.(in Chinese) [17]环海军,杨再强,刘岩,等.鲁中地区参考作物蒸散量时空变化特征及主要气象因子的贡献分析[J].中国农业气象,2015, 36(6):692-698. Huan H J,Yang Z Q,Liu Y,et al.Temporal and spatial variation of reference crop evapotranspiration and contribution of main factors in the middle area of Shandong province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2015,36(6): 692-698.(in Chinese) [18]王潇潇,潘学标,顾生浩,等.内蒙古地区参考作物蒸散变化特征及其气象影响因子[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(增刊1):142-152. Wang X X,Pan X B,Gu S H,et al.Trend in reference crop evapotranspiration and meteorological factors affecting trends in Inner Mongolia[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2015, 31(Supp.1):142-152.(in Chinese) [19]黄娟,申双和,李新建,等.1961-2010年中国参考作物蒸散量变化趋势与时空格局[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(5): 240- 244. Huang J,Shen S H,Li X J,et al.Research of variation trend and spatial pattern of reference crop evapotranspiration during the period from 1961 to 2010 in China[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(5):240-244.(in Chinese)

中国粮食主产区参考作物蒸散量演变特征与成因分析

Spatio-Temporal Variability and Cause Analysis of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in the Main Grain Producing Areas of China

PDF (PC)

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	康文东, 倪福全, 邓玉, 向军. 利用SWAT模型分析乌江流域蓝绿水时空分布特征[J]. 中国农业气象, 2023, 44(06): 469-478.
[2]	马亚丽, 孙栋元, 张芮, 许健, 王兴繁. 甘肃省参考作物蒸散量时空变异驱动因子分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2022, 43(11): 881-892.
[3]	王大刚, 于洋, MALIK Ireneusz, WISTUBA Malgorzata, 张敏, 闫小月, 孙凌霄, 于瑞德. 塔里木盆地生长季ET0的时空变化特征及其敏感性分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2022, 43(05): 340-352.
[4]	刘小飞, 王景雷, 刘祖贵, 宋妮, 方文松. 基于日天气预报数据估算小麦生长季参考作物蒸散量[J]. 中国农业气象, 2022, 43(03): 194-203.
[5]	贾悦, 苏永军, 张冉, 李鹏程, 王凤春, 路梅. 气象资料受限条件下BP神经网络优化模型模拟参考作物蒸散量：以京津冀地区为例[J]. 中国农业气象, 2022, 43(01): 1-16.
[6]	桑玉强, 李龙, 施光耀, 贾长荣, 张劲松. 太行低山区荆条耗水特征及其与参考作物蒸散量的关系[J]. 中国农业气象, 2021, 42(08): 657-665.
[7]	郭建茂，白玛仁增，梁卫敏，申双和，江晓东. 两湖地区水稻抽穗开花期高温热害时空分布[J]. 中国农业气象, 2019, 40(01): 51-61.
[8]	康丽娟，巴特尔·巴克，罗那那，薛亚荣，王孟辉. 阿勒泰地区不同时间尺度参考作物蒸散量的时空变化及影响[J]. 中国农业气象, 2018, 39(08): 502-511.
[9]	杨永刚，崔宁博，胡笑涛，龚道枝，李晨，贾悦. 中国三大灌区参考作物蒸散量温度法模型的修订与适应性评价[J]. 中国农业气象, 2018, 39(06): 357-369.
[10]	王芳，王春乙，邬定荣，姚树然，白月明，张继权. 近30年中美玉米带生长季干旱特征的差异及成因分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2018, 39(06): 398-410.
[11]	邹海平，陈汇林，田光辉，陈小敏，白蕤，佟金鹤. 海南岛参考作物蒸散量时空变化特征及成因分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2018, 39(01): 18-26.
[12]	胡琦，董蓓，潘学标，王潇潇，魏培，赵海涵，张煦庭. 不同时间尺度下华北平原干湿气候时空变化及成因分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2017, 38(05): 267-277.
[13]	冯禹，崔宁博，龚道枝. 机器学习算法和Hargreaves模型在四川盆地ET₀计算中的比较[J]. 中国农业气象, 2016, 37(04): 415-421.
[14]	李英杰，延军平，王鹏涛. 北方农牧交错带参考作物蒸散量时空变化与成因分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2016, 37(02): 166-173.
[15]	李思思，张飞云，白磊，李兰海. 北疆地区生长季参考作物蒸散量的时空变化特征及其敏感性分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2015, 36(06): 683-691.