气候变化背景下华北平原冬小麦冬前生育期与节气对应及偏移分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2019.07.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用华北平原冬小麦种植区55个气象站点1961-2017年逐日地面观测资料，借助寿星公式，以气候倾向率的方法，选取冬小麦越冬期所需积温为指标，分析了冬小麦越冬期、播种期所在的节气时空分布和变化特征，并对冬小麦相关农事活动与节气的对应及偏移进行探讨。结果表明，近57a华北地区冬小麦越冬期推迟约3.7d，推迟趋势显著（P<0.05）。华北平原冬小麦播种期所在的节气由北向南逐渐推迟，与P1时段（1961-1990年）相比，P2时段（1991-2017年）冬小麦播种期界限显著北移。气候变化背景下华北平原冬小麦农事活动与二十四节气出现了一定的偏差，部分地区以前指导农事活动的谚语已不再完全适用，如山东省中部地区冬小麦最适播种期终止日由秋分节气的第3候推迟至寒露节气的第1候；河南省北部部分地区最晚播种期由寒露节气的第3候推迟至霜降节气的第1候。通过研究二十四节气与冬小麦播种期的对应关系来调整农事活动，未来还需考虑冬小麦生育期内对应节气的光、水等自然因素和农艺措施等人为因素的影响，科学指导农业生产以适应气候变化。

关键词: 华北平原, 冬小麦, 节气, 冬前生育期

Abstract: Based on the 1961-2017 surface data from 55 meteorological stations in the winter wheat planting area of North China Plain, the accumulated temperature required for winter wheat wintering period was selected as the index to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution and variation characteristics of the solar terms of wintering period and sowing period. This study have used the longevity formula and the method of climatic tendency rate. The correspondence and deviation between winter wheat related agricultural activities and solar terms were also discussed. The wintering period of winter wheat in North China showed a trend of significant delay (P<0.05) in recent 57 years. It was delayed by about 3.7 days. The solar term of the sowing time for winter wheat in North China Plain is gradually postponed from north to south. Compared with P1 period (1961-1990), the boundary of sowing period of winter wheat in P2 period (1991-2017) moved northward significantly. Under the background of climate change, there is a certain deviation between winter wheat farming activities and 24 solar terms in North China Plain. The proverbs used to guide farming activities in some areas are no longer fully applicable. For example, the termination day of optimal sowing date of winter wheat in central Shandong Province was postponed from the third pentad of the Autumn Equinox to the first pentad of the Cold Dews. The latest sowing date of winter wheat in northern Henan Province was postponed from the third pentad of the Cold Dews to the first pentad of Hoar-frost Falls.In this paper, agricultural activities were adjusted by studying the corresponding relationship between 24 solar terms and sowing date of winter wheat. In the future, we need to consider the effects of natural factors such as light, water and agronomic measures during the growth period of winter wheat, and scientifically guide agricultural production to adapt to climate change.

Key words: North China Plain, Winter wheat, Solar terms, Growing period before winter

张悦，胡琦，和骅芸，潘学标，马雪晴，黄彬香，王靖. 气候变化背景下华北平原冬小麦冬前生育期与节气对应及偏移分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2019, 40(07): 411-421.

ZHANG Yue, HU Qi, HE Hua-yun, PAN Xue-biao, MA Xue-qing, HUANG Bin-xiang, WANG Jing. Correspondence and Shifting Analysis for the Winter Wheat Growing Period before Winter and Solar Terms in the North China Plain under Climate Change Background[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2019, 40(07): 411-421.

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