中国农业气象 ›› 2021, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (12): 1057-1067.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2021.12.007

• 农业气象灾害 栏目 • 上一篇    

云南核桃干旱气象指数保险产品设计

秦涛,朱彩霞   

  1. 北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:2021-04-26 出版日期:2021-12-20 发布日期:2021-11-28
  • 通讯作者: 朱彩霞,博士生,研究方向为林业投资与金融,E-mail:18137829506@163.com E-mail:18137829506@163.com
  • 作者简介:秦涛,E-mail:qintao415@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    北京市社会科学基金项目“北京市公益林保险产品创新与运行模式优化”(18YJB011);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“我国森林保险精准扶贫效应评估与机制优化研究”(20YJA790059);国家自然科学基金青年项目“基于风险区划的中国森林火灾险费率厘定研究”(71403022)

Design of Yunnan Walnut Drought Weather Index Insurance Product

QIN Tao, ZHU Cai-xia   

  1. School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083 , China
  • Received:2021-04-26 Online:2021-12-20 Published:2021-11-28

摘要: 为有效减少传统森林保险市场的逆向选择以及道德风险,降低理赔成本,提高理赔效率,本研究基于云南核桃产业发展的情况设计干旱气象指数保险,依据年降水量距平百分率测算干旱指数,采用HP滤波法计算核桃减产率,构建回归模型确定干旱指数与减产率之间的相关关系,科学厘定纯费率以及风险区划。结果表明:云南不同州(市)核桃干旱指数保险的纯费率在1.26%~34.39%,聚类分析发现,各州(市)风险损失概率差异显著,曲靖、普洱等区域处于轻度生态脆弱区,干旱灾害较少,而昭通、红河等区域处于强度生态脆弱地区,干旱灾害较多。可依据纯费率的风险区划聚类分析,不同州(市)设置不同的保费补贴比例,从而健全保费补贴政策制度。根据云南核桃种植分布以及区域干旱情况,滇北地区纯费率较高的昭通市彝良县,滇西地区生态脆弱的保山市昌宁县,滇东地区“中国核桃之乡”楚雄州大姚县以及大理州漾濞县可先行试点,根据实际情况反馈,对保险产品进行优化。

关键词: 干旱气象指数, 核桃减产率, 费率厘定, 保险产品设计, 聚类分析

Abstract: In order to effectively reduce the adverse selection and moral hazard in the traditional forest insurance market, reduce the cost of claims, and improve the efficiency of claims, authors designed drought weather index insurance based on the development of the walnut industry in Yunnan.First of all, the drought index was calculated based on anomaly percentage of annual precipitation.Secondly, the HP filter method was used to calculate the walnut yield reduction rate. Finally, by constructing a regression model to determine the correlation between the drought index and the rate of yield reduction, the pure rate and risk zoning were determined.The time span of the panel data is from 2007 to 2017. Meteorological data and walnut output data come from the China Forestry Statistical Yearbook compiled by the State Forestry Administration, Yunnan Statistical Yearbook compiled by the Yunnan Provincial Statistics Bureau, Yunnan Yearbook compiled by the Yunnan Provincial People's Government, Yunnan Provincial Government Report on National Economic and Social Development and statistical yearbook sharing platform. Others are from The official website of the Yunnan Forestry and Grassland Bureau (http://lcj.yn.gov.cn/) Government Report on National Economic and Social Development of Yunnan Province. At the same time, refer to the relevant data of the 2019 Yunnan Province Climate Bulletin. There are 8 steps in the innovative design of insurance products. (1) Determine the homogeneity of the region, and apply weather index insurance when the homogeneity is high. (2) Determine the drought weather index, based on the impact of precipitation on the growth of walnuts, and refer to the existing drought grade standards, to determine the different drought indexes in the region. (3) Calculate the yield reduction of walnuts due to lack of water, and isolate the impact of precipitation on crop growth potential, that is, isolate the drought weather yield. (4) Quantify the regression relationship between walnut yield reduction rate and drought index, and establish a regression model. (5) Determine the critical value of production reduction due to water shortage and determine the trigger compensation value of insurance. (6) The price of insurance contracts is determined, and the pure rate is determined based on the principle of "equal expected value", and the contract is designed. (7) Feedback on product pilots, and revise and optimize products based on market demand. (8) Market promotion and popularization of products, and do a good job in product publicity. The results showed that the pure premium rate of walnut drought index insurance in different states (cities) in Yunnan is between 1.26% and 34.39%. Cluster analysis found that there are significant differences in the risk loss probability of various states (cities). Among them, Qujing, Pu'er and other areas are in mild ecologically fragile areas with fewer drought disasters, while Zhaotong and Honghe are in strong ecologically fragile areas with more drought disasters. Which provide a theoretical basis for insurance companies to further calculate the rate. Based on the risk zoning cluster analysis of pure premium rate, different states (cities) can set different premium subsidy ratios, so as to improve the premium subsidy policy system. According to the distribution of walnut planting in Yunnan and the regional drought situation, Yiliang county, Zhaotong city, which has a higher pure premium rate in northern Yunnan, Changning county, Baoshan city, which is ecologically fragile in western Yunnan, and Dayao county, Chuxiong prefecture, the "hometown of walnuts in China" in eastern Yunnan and Yangbi county, Dali prefecture, can conduct pilot projects and optimize insurance products based on feedback from actual conditions.

Key words: Drought weather index, Walnut yield reduction rate, Rate determination, Insurance product design, Cluster analysis