中国农业气象 ›› 2021, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (12): 1042-1056.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2021.12.006

• 农业气象灾害 栏目 • 上一篇    下一篇

夏玉米倒伏气象等级指标构建

李树岩,薛昌颖,张守林,任丽伟,陈道培,魏庆伟   

  1. 1.中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室,郑州 450003;2.河南省气象科学研究所,郑州 450003;3.鹤壁市农业科学院,鹤壁 458000;4.鹤壁市气象局,鹤壁 458000
  • 收稿日期:2021-04-16 出版日期:2021-12-20 发布日期:2021-11-28
  • 通讯作者: 张守林,研究员,主要从事夏玉米栽培育种技术研究,E-mail: zhangshoulin2008@163.com E-mail:zhangshoulin2008@163.com
  • 作者简介:李树岩, E-mail: lsy_126com@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    河南省科技攻关项目(212102110240);河南省自然科学基金项目(202300410530);中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室开放基金项目(AMF201902)

Construction of Meteorological Grade Index for Summer Maize Lodging

LI Shu-yan, XUE Chang-ying, ZHANG Shou-lin, REN Li-wei, CHEN Dao-pei, WEI Qing-wei   

  1. 1. China Meteorological Administration·Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique, Zhengzhou 450003, China;2. Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou 450003; 3. Hebi Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hebi 458000; 4. Hebi Meteorological Bureau, Hebi 458000
  • Received:2021-04-16 Online:2021-12-20 Published:2021-11-28

摘要: 大风和降水是诱发夏玉米倒伏的直接外界条件。为界定不同风雨条件下夏玉米倒伏发生程度,利用2001−2019年河南省鹤壁市农业科学院品种区域试验中倒伏灾害的调查资料,反查倒伏发生时的风速(极大风速、最大风速)和降水量数据,分析倒伏率与气象条件的定量关系,构建玉米倒伏气象等级指标,并利用农业气象观测中倒伏典型灾害案例对指标进行验证。首先分析不同时间尺度降水量与倒伏率的关系,确定对倒伏影响显著的“过程雨量”为倒伏发生前1日−倒伏过程1h内的降水量总和,厘定后的“过程雨量”与倒伏率拟合R2为0.924。根据灾年样本“过程雨量”的分布特征,以15mm为界将倒伏致灾天气类型划分为“大风型”和“风雨型”,分类后两种天气类型致灾风速与倒伏率的拟合效果较未分类前显著提升。分别建立“大风型”和“风雨型”气象条件与倒伏率的回归模型,并以倒伏率≥5%、≥10%和≥20%分别作为轻、中、重度倒伏的划分标准,反推不同倒伏等级的气象条件阈值,构建两种天气类型的气象等级指标。结果表明,(1)“大风型”倒伏等级指标为,14m•s−1≤极大风速<25ms−1或8ms−1≤最大风速<16ms−1时发生轻度倒伏;极大风速≥25ms−1或最大风速≥16ms−1时发生中度倒伏。(2)“风雨型”倒伏等级指标为,≤15mm过程雨量<40mm,极大风速≥11ms−1或最大风速≥5ms−1时发生中度倒伏;过程雨量≥40mm,极大风速≥15ms−1或最大风速≥7ms−1时发生重度倒伏。利用历史倒伏案例对指标进行验证表明,指标判定的灾情等级与实际完全相符的占73%,相差一个等级的占27%。说明指标可为开展倒伏灾害预警,指导农业生产防灾减灾提供参考依据。

关键词: 倒伏, 气象等级, 倒伏率, 夏玉米

Abstract: Strong wind and precipitation are the direct external conditions that induce maize lodging. In order to accurately define the lodging degree of summer maize under different wind and rain conditions, the data of maize regional variety tests in Hebi city from 2003 to 2019 was used. The wind speed (extreme max. or max.wind speed) and precipitation were extracted according to the recorded lodging time. The quantitative relationship between lodging percentage and meteorological conditions was analyzed, and the summer maize lodging meteorological grade index was constructed. The validations of the indices were conducted using agricultural meteorological observation data and lodging disaster data in the literatures. Firstly, according to the correlations between the lodging percentage and precipitation at different time scales, the “process rainfall” that had a significant impact on lodging was determined as the total amount of precipitation from 1 day before the occurrence of the lodging to 1 hour during the lodging process. R2 of the regression equation between the determined "process rainfall" and the lodging percentage was 0.924. According to the threshold of "process rainfall" of 15mm, the types of lodging disaster weather were classified into "strong wind type" and "wind and rain type". After classification, the fitness between wind speed and lodging percentage for two weather types was significantly improved. The regression equations between meteorological conditions and lodging percentage for two weather types were established. Then, the meteorological factors thresholds for three lodging grades (slight, moderate and severe) were determined responding to the lodging percentage standards 5%, 10%, and 20%, respectively. For the "strong wind type", the indices of light grade were the extreme maximum wind speed between 14ms−1 and 25ms−1or the maximum wind speed between 8ms−1 and 16ms−1. The indices of moderate grade were the extreme maximum wind speed higher than 25ms−1 or the maximum wind speed higher than 16ms−1. For the "wind and rain type", 15mm≤"process rainfall"<40mm and the extreme maximum wind speed≥11ms−1 or the maximum wind speed≥5ms−1 was moderate grade;The indices of severe grade were the "process rainfall" higher than 40mm and extreme maximum wind speed higher than 15ms−1 or the maximum wind speed higher than 7ms−1. The validation results of the meteorological grade indices of maize lodging showed that 73% of the judged grades were consistent with the actual disaster grades, and 27% were different by one grade. The indices could provide a reference for meteorological early warning of lodging and guide agricultural production to prevent and reduce disasters.

Key words: Lodging, Meteorological grade, Lodging percentage, Summer maize