Abstract: Drought occurrences in the Southwestern Shandong Province from the perspectives of the soil moisture were analyzed.By using the enumeration method and Markov model designed by Gabriel and Neumann,the soil moisture sequences were calculated under quasi-natural condition eliminating by jamming from year 1960 to year 2003.The probability densities of the drought duration and the successive quarter drought occurrences in the Southwestern Shandong Province were gained.The losing velocity of the soil moisture at the different soil moisture levels for each ten days without effective precipitation in future ten days were statistically calculated to reveal the relationship between soil moisture changes and seasons,and to determine the meteorological factors which affected the soil moisture.The effects of the precipitation at the different levels in improving the status of the soil drought were analyzed.

Key words: Southwestern Shandong Province, Southwestern Shandong Province, Soil moisture, Drought duration