Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (2): 249-257.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2025.02.011

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Risk Assessment of Low-temperature Disaster on Peony in Heze, Shandong Province

ZHANG Cui-ying, GUO Jian-ping, ZHAI Jian-qing, HAO Xiao-lei, WANG Jun-lin, CAO Jie   

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong Meteorological Administration, Jinan 250031, China; 

    2.Heze Meteorological Bureau of Shandong Province, Heze 274000; 

    3.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081; 

    4.National Climate Center, Beijing 100081; 

    5.Shandong Climate Center, Jinan 250031; 

  • Received:2024-02-02 Online:2025-02-20 Published:2025-02-20
  • Contact: GUO Jian-ping, ZHAI Jian-qing E-mail:gjp@cma.gov.cn；zhaijq@cma.gov.cn

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Abstract:

Peony is an important specialty cash crop in Heze city, Shandong province. Low temperature and freezing damage in spring is the main meteorological disaster faced by peony in Heze city, which not only affects the flowering time and yield of peony, but also affects the local characteristic tourism and economic benefits. This study was based on the observational data of 9 national meteorological stations from 1978 to 2020 and 150 regional automatic stations since 2005, as well as the phenology and disaster data of peony in Heze, Shandong province. Firstly, the cold air and frost processes were identified, and a single-disaster hazard assessment was carried out by selecting typical disaster factors for example the duration days, maximum the drop of daily minimum temperature, extreme minimum temperature of cold air processes and the days, mean temperature, minimum temperature of frost disaster. Secondly, the risk index of low temperature disaster was obtained by weighted sum of the single disaster hazard. Finally, the low temperature disaster risk of Mudan in Heze was quantitatively assessed based on the three-factor methodology of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The results showed that Juye county and Yuncheng county of Heze city had the largest proportions of high level hazard areas of low temperature disaster, which were 9.8% and 9.5% respectively. The proportions of areas with high level hazard in Caoxian county and Mudan district were the smallest, both less than 0.3%. Affected by low temperature risk and peony exposure, the high risk areas of low temperature disaster mainly distributed in the northeast and southeast of Heze city. In addition, the urban area of Mudan, where peonies were mainly planted, had a higher risk of low temperature disaster leading to a greater risk of peony disaster. The central and western areas were low risk areas, especially the western, southern and eastern parts of peony area, where the risks of low temperature disaster were lower. This research suggested that the planting area of ornamental peony can be expanded to increase the economic benefits of flower farmers. The results can provide basic support for optimizing the planting structure and sustainable development of peony in Heze.

Key words:

Specialty cash crops, Meteorological disaster, Cold air/frost, Hazard, Risk